The real thing and the data thing
 

For your interest

http://www.abc.net.au/rn/science/oc...es/s1647504.htm

Hi Fryinpan,

I feel that if the chance occurrence that springs to attention follows the same pattern over the next set of results, then it is not a chance occurrence.

If another 7 workers at RMIT were diagnosed with brain tumours over the next few years, would they still call it chance?????

Unfortunately, a LOT of racing systems are based on a chance occurrence.

Chances are they will probably find more, because they will now be looking for them. Bit like cancer. The cancer rates [all types] are increasing right along with newer and more sophisticated science and technology to find it and people living longer and having more tests for cancers than we have ever had.

Headlines scream 'brain tumor!' without quantifying. It's a bit like 'road accident!' It doesn't mean much by itself as severity is not mentioned. Perhaps that floor's age group is generally higher [more senior personal] than floors below?. They have been using their mobile phones longer etc.?

Someone wins tattslotto 3 times [it's happened]. Do we rule out chance? Of course not, we know it's chance. If they find more brain tumors It can't be? Horse No 7 wins 6 from 8 races on a meeting's card, do we run out and back No7 on all races next meeting at that track?

People can live to a ripe old age and die of natural causes AND have picked up various cancers and even a [very mild] brain tumor at various stages in their life. Neither are rare. My mother had a mild brain tumor for 30yrs. Never caused her any grief and she died of old age. "Brain tumors found in workers' sells a lot of newspapers though.

This is why a basic grasp of statistics is of benefit to all of us. (Thanks for that Fryingpan).