French Open 2006
 

Quick intro about myself before I get into the meat of this year’s French Open Draw.


I used to be the tennis service provider at Smartgambler for two years and although I stopped providing the service, I do still have a very strong passion for tennis betting, keeping all my databases up to date on a daily basis.

This year’s French Open does appear on paper to be a two horse race, with Federer playing Nadal in the Final and the young Spaniard looking to be the winner. In the Rome Masters Final there was only one or two points separating these players so it points to a great Final if they can get through 6 best of five set matches to get there.


No value in picking either of those guys, and assuming they do go all the way to the Final, there will be 6 other Quarter Finalists and 2 opponents at the Semi stage so let’s see if we can work the value players out.

Top Quarter


Federer should get there easily playing either Berdych, Volandri, Melzer or Kiefer them being the most likely players from the next chunk – an open section with any of those guys capable on their day.

Ancic vs Galvani in the next section, getting the right to play Acasuso or Robredo. Acasuso was exhausted by the time he reached the Semis of the recent Hamburg event, so his loss to Stepanek shouldn’t be treated as a significant blot on his copybook.

My pricing says it will be Federer vs Robredo in the Quarters – with Federer to go through to the Semis. Acasuso making it to the Quarters though would not shock me.

Second Quarter

Nalbandian plays Grosjean, Pavel or Nieminen – most likely Nieminen (according to my pricing).

Gaudio plays Davydenko.

Quarter Final Nalbandian vs Davydenko with the Argentine the most likely winner.

Third Quarter


Roddick struggling at the moment so Beto Martin or Ollie Rochus here to play Stepanek (Baghdatis is in this section, but clay is really not his thing).

Ferrer to play Verdasco.


Quarter Final to be Stepanek vs Verdasco with Stepanek priced shorter to make it to the Semis – he does have a bad record deep in events though so I wouldn’t be banking on him making it to a Semi.


Final Quarter


Almagro to play Gonzalez (Gonzo with Safin 1^st and as we know the Russian can be good on his day – can be awful too).

Hewitt of play Nadal – Hewitt not 100% at the moment and no lead up form to speak of but that section is so shallow he could make it that far on grit alone (maybe Daniel if I had to elect one to beat Hewitt).

Quarter to be Almagro vs Nadal.


Semis to be Federer vs Nalbandian and Stepanek vs Nadal. Yet again the third quarter of the draw being the weakest section – at the last 4 Grand Slams we have had Davydenko here last year, Thomas Johansson at Wimbledon, Robert Ginepri at the US Open and Nalbandian at the Aussie Open make Semis from that chunk of the draw.


In order my pricing is:


Nadal

Federer

Robredo

Nalbandian

Davydenko

Stepanek

Almagro

Acasuso

Verdasco

Ancic

Gonzalez

Gaudio

Happy punting if you are going to have a bet here. I'm leaving the outrights alone - however players outside of Nadal and Federer may present trading opportunities later in the event, for those who like that style.


Cheers


Tony

I think Federer is a special to win the tournament

but the following should make progress:

Ferrer
Mathieu
Chela
Horna
Vicente

soderling value 1st round against nadal

Starts on Sunday this year but nothing much on offer.

Federer vs Hartfield so no betting there (1.01 Federer is about the chances of him doing himself an injury)

Acasuso vs Santoro I have it roughly 1.11 vs 9.0 but the majority of that 11% chance for Santoro is due to him being a local.

Zib vs Robredo - no value in Robredo even though I rate him 1.03

Bandy vs Wawrinka - Nalbandian at 1.21 is nice really considering I rate him 1.03

Carlsen vs Henman - Henman probably wins but would you take 1.15 him on the dirt?

Moya vs Marin - Priced about how I rate it and even though Marin has the unenviable record of turning up to 22 Slams and never (YEP NEVER) making it to Round 2 you wouldn't be I wouldn't be taking 1.15 about Moya - In those 22 Slam visits he has failed to qualify six times but has made the draw the other 16 times for 16 losses.

I wouldn't have a bet today

I'm sure you were the retirement plan of many of us tennis subscribers ;)

Not going to post my thoughts on every round one clash here, but think the value plays look to be:

Galvani
Tuksar
Chardy
Verdasco
Monfils
Vicente
Patience
Mathieu

Short ones who should win look to be

Davydenko
Ancic
Neiminen
Vliegen
Lapentti

Think Ferrero and Hrbaty could be pushed in their matches so "in the run" betting maybe the way to go for them (or their opponents).

Cheers

Tony

;) glad we got that cleared up

Just to clear that up - Im happy to price matches however I'm not comfortable telling people how they should gamble.

What I mean is that Ferrero at 1.28 and Hrbaty at 1.39 are seriously underpriced - even though I mark them as favourites. This leaves you with numerous options:

1) Wait until they get to a better price in the run and back them to win
2) Lay them at the current prices on offer and back them later in the run to cover your losses plus some (assuming their opponents do get close)
3) Back their opponents at the prices on offer and lay them back in the run if they happen get on top
4) Combinations on 2 or 3
5) Lay them at the 3-0 sets option and you win if their opponent takes at least a set

Does that make it a little clearer?

Anyone have any info on Malisse and Massu game. I just think $2.50 on Malisse is great value

yeah i knew what you meant, i was just being facetious ;)

not looking too good a value at the moment
 

sorry the fan but malisse down 0-4 in the first. the value looking a bit shaky at the mo.