LAST START WINNER LAY SYSTEM
 

Going to try a new lay system out for a bit of fun. It goes against the grain a little, in that I will only lay horses that have won their last start. The rules are as follows:

1. Won its last start by 0.5 lengths or less.

2. Up in weight from last start any amount.

3. Up in Field Strength (FS a positive + figure) from DFS formguide.

4. Has not won at distance before, and/or going.

5. Choose the highest rated (DFS) applicable horse per race.

The theory is the horse may have given its absolute best to just win last start, and with the extra weight, class and the unknown factor of distance and perhaps going, it should be worth laying. I will trial it for a while, and if I cop a hammering i will pull the pin. Will post selections when I have time but prob not every day. Staking is from a method i have come across on another forum. Ficticious bank is $1000.00

- Maximum lay is @ 6.50.
- Lay 2% of your betting bank for odds 0 - 3.50
- Lay 1% or your betting bank for odds 3.51 - 6.50

Selections for today:
Cant.
R3 N2 SECOND CHOICE
R5 N6 CARTOONS

Lay any last start winner with 10% or less win strike rate that has had more than 15 starts and you can't loose. Once horses have had 15 starts their SR is pretty much set in stone for the rest of their career. If they won last start the odds are massively in your favour [9/1] they won't repeat for awhile, let alone their next start :-))

Sounds sensible, i'll keep an eye on it Crash.

Found one that fits Crash's criteria. R5 N3 FLYING DANSINO.
I guess you wouldnt lay any more than 9.00. 18 starts for 1 win last start.
We'll see how it goes and what odds Betfair might throw up.

Good start. It was very disappointing at short odds.

Thanks Sportz. Love to see a disappointing fav when im laying it!

It lost [for sure] but I wouldn't be offering 9/1 on these Ned's !!!

See, winning money at this game only take a bit of simple logic and a dash of horse sense :-))

Under a new method I'm trialling Flying Dansino is 4th rated in that race. My top 4 are 4-6-10-3 . Number 4 currently paying 48.20 on Unitab? Might have to have a dabble.

It'll have that SR for the rest of it's career. It's amazing how often these eventual clag bottle refills go out and start favourite next start when they [finally] win one !

Crash, I wouldnt feel real comfortable laying at 9.00 either, i laid SECOND CHOICE at 3.00 which is much more my comfort area. Anything over 6.50, you would want to have a cracking selection process at work or you will end up struggling. Occasionally i lay at higher odds, but it is only when i am laying 3 or four horses in the one race. It would be interesting to see how your laying method would work on paper @ no more than 9.00. Going by early tote prices, I think it will be no bet today.