Really bolters or just miss priced?
 

Thought I'd post a little synopsis of the longer priced winners today.
Often there is no reason to have them and they are true bolters, but in more cases they have been overlooked because of ONE factor and are simply overpriced by the market.

Randwick R7 Coalesce $27.30

Entered into an average grade Group 3 first up over 1400m
First up over 1400m was only beaten 1.8L in a Hawkesbury maiden
First up over 1600m in a Welter at Eagle Farm - WON.
First up beaten 3.5L in a much stronger Welter at Randwick
Been placed in Listed grade
Been placed and won in Group 3 company, the best being a win at Flemington over longer distance.
The bottom line is that this is a horse that had won first up over similar distance and had won in better grade.
The horse is better known over longer distance, but had proved itself first up over shorter distance.

Surely 27/1 was overs???

Randwick R9 Whoever $42.10

Lightly raced mare stepping up to restricted Listed race
Won 2 from 6 starts
Placed 4 from 6 starts
Beaten 0.8L last start in a class 3 over 1100 and prior won a class 3 at canterbury over 1100m
Surely on form (although a leap in class) it was way over the odds.

I couldn't find one longshot winner today, there wasn't a very good case for.
I'm not saying I backed any of them, just that one can see easily that the market got it wrong by a longshot. ;)

Hi Chrome

Its always easy to make a case after the event. The winner strikes and you look back and think gee how did i miss that. However the reality is that we now focus on the winner whereby previous to the event we could have made a case for a number of entrants.

I understand where you are coming from and if one bets a few in a race and the odds they were offered would have been reasonable to includee but still and unknown with fitness etc.

Cheers
ubetido

Chrome, apart from all that D. BEADMAN!!!!

I know it's easy after the race, of course, but I still reckon it was over the odds based on form alone.

It wouldn't have been in my top few, but I can understand why it won and had I thought about the overs - it certainly was.

Just pointing out they did have some case in their form and it wasn't one of those bolters that you would never ever have picked in a blue moon.

Hindsight makes expert punters of all of us.

Don't forget to share your longshot winners for next Sat. on the Fri. night please Chrome.

I got $60 about Whoever up here, Chrome. :D

I was stunned at the price. I had it rated at $10 and thought it would be no more than about $20. As for Coalesce, I didn't back it, but I should have. I mean, how often do you get $25 about any good horse in Sydney ridden by Beadman and trained by Hawkes???

Crash, please give me the final starting prices for all horses next Friday and I'll be happy to give you the longshot winners ;)