Exotic Takeouts query
 

Morning All,

I was wondering if anyone knows how to estimate what a trifecta
dividend would be by using win dividends from a live odds service? Appreciate any thoughts. THanks, Gary

Anyone trying this with real money should be prepared to be taken to the cleaners by ruthless sharks.


If you have decimal odds in column A

Then this expression in B will derive (estimated) probabilities

=HARMEAN(A:A)/COUNT(A:A)/A1

The Trifecta Probability for A B C is:

a*b*c/(1-a)/(1-a-b)

The dividend is the inverse.



I have written about the theory here.

http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=13113

I was given a formula a while back that can do that, it is not totaly accurate but 99% of the time they pay more.

I am not on my pc right now but if you don't get an answer i will post it friday.

Thanks Shaun.

Regards, Gary

G'day Swooper,

Here is a formula.


X * [( X * Y)- 1] * [ Z + 1]
........................................ -1
X + 1

Here is an example

Horse X=2/1
Horse Y=3/1
Horse=4/1

2 *[(2*3)-1)]*[4+1]
................................ -1
[4+1]

=> 2*5*5
.......... -1
3

=> 50
...... -1
3

=> 16.67-1

=> 15.67

=> 16/1 rounded

This formula is very accurate,BUT can be distorted if the net probabilities of any combination is in excess of 100%

Hope this helps.

Here is a punting tool to do the calculations for you.

Just enter the Decimal odds e.g. $3.00 , $4.00 ect.

ozracetools.com/modules.php?name=Trifecta_Predictor

Cheers.