Ashes Probability Puzzle
 

With 5 wickets remaining of the 4th innings the batting team B is 354 runs behind A.

B has a 1% probability of winning the match.

Question: What is the probability of a tie?

Assume:

Draw impossible.

B averages 1 run for every wicket-free ball.

Hint: should be able to solve with spreadsheet using a function whose name has at least 10 letters.

Hamburgers has got 10 letters.
But be careful you don't drip the tomato sauce on your tie.

What needs to occur to have a tie?.
Do they need to score exactly 354 runs at the setting of the sun or what?

To tie Team B needs to score 354 runs and then lose all its remaining wickets without adding its to the score.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tied_Test

I think you talking ********.
You gotta remember that the last 5 batsmen are nowhere near the class of the first 5 batsmen.
They gonna go out before they can make the 354 runs.
If you divide 354 by 5,there is no way Each of these batsmen can average 70 runs each!

Obviously I based the puzzle on the real situation yesterday morning.

From memory Betfair had England at ~170 to win.

So the 1% probability for Team B winning was as close as I could get without messing with pesky fractions.

Ah, so this is where the incredibly gifted mathematically congregate!

Don't be frustrated,I've lost over a million dollars in 30 years of punting.
It can happen to anyone.
Just keep searching Crash.
The answer has to be somewhere.