Caulfield R6 13/01/07, My ratings & prices.
 

Caulfield Race 6 13/01/07

TAB Name Rating My Price
13 Sonic quest 65.9 $1.60
12 Lucky Unicorn 61.6 $6.60
10 Elbrus 58.9 $22.00
9 Raid The Royals 58.3 $29.30
3 Recapitalize 58.1 $32.30
14 Timboon 57.8 $37.30
15 Bianomour 56.8 $61.40
4 Forest Spy 56.4 $76.00
5 Benedetti 56 $92.40
2 Smart & Mighty 55.8 $100.00
11 Gold Wells 55.6 $100.00
6 Camp Kalani 54.5 $100.00
1 Field Hunter 53.2 $100.00
8 Blue Collar Jack 51.6 $100.00
7 Our Spur 49.8 $100.00

According to my ratings, Sonic Quest is " over the line " but dangers are 12, 10, and 9.

As usual, all care & no responsibility,

Good luck,

Gerry

Gerry, I am not one to knock anyones methods or workings but i am curious as to the way you come about your prices. Are you implying that anything longer than $1.60 for Sonic Quest is value?? or if you were a bookie this would be your market?

Another point which i notice in your market is that the difference between elbrus and timboon is 1.1 rating points. If your rating them out of 100 (just guessing) thats 1% difference obviously, but the price difference is $15, that is quite substantial for such little difference in the ratings.


If it has been a winning ratings system for along time then i wouldn't mind hearing how you come about the prices, if you are willing to explain your formula.

Caulfield R6 13/01/07, My ratings & prices.
 

G'day Real Deal,

Thanks for your interest. Don't know if you read Youngbuck's query last week re. Ratings to Prices, but my reply to that should answer your question.

I don't start out with a base rate of 100, and my ratings are actually a weight rating, arrived at by converting predicted margins to weights.
In the case of this race, if the top rated horse got 65.9 and the bottom rated horse 49.8 ( diff. = 16.1), then the diff. between Elbrus & Timboon's rating (1.1) equals about 7% of the diff. between top and bottom ratings, and 7% = around $15 when pricing to around 100%.

I don't claim that my ratings are always spot on, but prepost markets, paper polls etc. are not taken into consideration, so quite often my market is much different to published markets and comes up with good overlays, and conversely, show up horses which are quite short, as having little chance. Having said this, then I have to say that yes, I would have to agree that anything over $1.60 would be OK for Sonic Quest (as I write $4.90 on VicTAB), except that I believe in that old adage, odds on, look on!

For practicality, the max. price I allow is 99/1 ($100), but you got me thinking, so I ran the ratings using no upper limit, and the following is the result. I would be more than happy to send you the program for converting ratings to odds if you send me your email address. (No problem with copywrite as I wrote it myself).

13 Sonic quest 65.9 $1.50
12 Lucky Unicorn 61.6 $6.60
10 Elbrus 58.9 $22.30
9 Raid The Royals 58.3 $29.70
3 Recapitalize 58.1 $32.70
14 Timboon 57.8 $37.90
15 Bianomour 56.8 $62.40
4 Forest Spy 56.4 $76.40
5 Benedetti 56 $93.90
2 Smart & Mighty 55.8 $104.10
11 Gold Wells 55.6 $115.50
6 Camp Kalani 54.5 $205.30
1 Field Hunter 53.2 $417.00
8 Blue Collar Jack 51.6 $1,015.80
7 Our Spur 49.8 $2,848.40

No mate, I am not a bookie, just a punter who understands odds and who refuses to take unders, so if you find a bookie silly enough to work to 100%, let me know, the problem would be that he will not be in business very long!

Any programmers out there who may be interested in co-producing a marketable ratings program based on my QBASIC program feel free to contact me.

Hope this answers your question,

Good punting,

Gerry

Gerry,

Thankyou very much for the response.


I also notice the result was very nice for you, if you took your top rater straight out. I dare say you missed any exotics with the bottom rater running second.

PS. Bookies offer 1/4 price the place?? 2848 / 4 = $712 the place. Very nice.hehe

Hi Gerry,

My apologies for not responding to you last time. I did not think you had responded, and only noticed today. Thanks for the offer, i wouldnt mind taking a look at your program, although i must admit i have no idea about QBASIC and programming in general. I have my own ratings which are based purely on times and weights, but it is a very manual process which I would love to be automatic. My email address is djcaulfield at bigpond dot com dot au.

Caulfield R6 13/01/07, My ratings & prices.
 

G'day Real Deal & Youngbuck,

Glad to be of service. You're right mate, got nowhere near the Tri or First 4, that would have been real handy.

I will continue to post to the forum each Sat. & maybe the occasional midweek, but starting with next Sat. will use the Thread Title "My Ratings & Prices" permanently instead of starting a new thread each week.

As a long time racing "buff" (around 50 years) let me tell you the truest words I have ever heard on the subject........they are,

"You can beat a race, but you can't beat the races"

so your first step in trying to find a winner should be to sort out which races you will concentrate on, maybe one or two per meeting. Remember, patience is a virtue.

Gerry