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-   -   Exploiting Power Pays (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=15357)

jfc 27th January 2007 06:35 AM

Exploiting Power Pays
 
I'm amazed that no one responded to my earlier post on Power Pays, and that there has been minimal discussion anywhere on ways to exploit them.

But as noted elsewhere yesterday UniTAB "secretly" also lowered its rake to ~7.5% thus providing a welcome price war with SuperTAB's 5.95%.

And IAS still offered SuperPrice - essentially Median Tote + ~6% of winning portion.

ozeform.com/site/todays_racing/raceresults.aspx?track=RANDWICK&GRT=R&seldate=20070126

By my calculations for SMB yesterday IAS returned an average 2.5% more than SuperTAB.

Betfair also returned more but some weird claimed prices make it harder to quantify.

Anyway all this appears too good to be true.

If this situation continues today then astute punters should be able to get set for considerable amounts in favourable markets. By shopping around between Betfair, IAS and the TABs.

Of course SportsBet with its Best of 3 Totes is even more attractive but they might consider anyone trying this to be a little too over-recreational for their taste.

crash 27th January 2007 05:55 PM

I think the main reason what you suggested has been ignored is that 99% of punters here don't know what your talking about and/or wouldn't know how to [practically] go about it even if they did.

jfc 1st February 2007 05:42 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
I think the main reason what you suggested has been ignored is that 99% of punters here don't know what your talking about and/or wouldn't know how to [practically] go about it even if they did.


I extend my sympathies to these 99% of Smartgamblers and Pro-Punters who are unable to grapple with a 10% dividend bonus when it bites them in the hip pocket.

Meanwhile,

One would have imagined that turnover would have switched to the Power Pays Win Pool at the expense of the other Pools.

Yet after translating Tabcorp's figures for the Power Pay weekend:

+23% Win Increase to $20.82m.
+16% Increase on Other Pools to $25.24m.

Fortunately Tabcorp is planning a "thorough analysis" of their promotion so maybe they'll explain this perplexity.

Stix 1st February 2007 12:43 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfc
I'm amazed that no one responded to my earlier post on Power Pays, and that there has been minimal discussion anywhere on ways to exploit them.

But as noted elsewhere yesterday UniTAB "secretly" also lowered its rake to ~7.5% thus providing a welcome price war with SuperTAB's 5.95%.

And IAS still offered SuperPrice - essentially Median Tote + ~6% of winning portion.

ozeform.com/site/todays_racing/raceresults.aspx?track=RANDWICK&GRT=R&seldate=20070126

By my calculations for SMB yesterday IAS returned an average 2.5% more than SuperTAB.

Betfair also returned more but some weird claimed prices make it harder to quantify.

Anyway all this appears too good to be true.

If this situation continues today then astute punters should be able to get set for considerable amounts in favourable markets. By shopping around between Betfair, IAS and the TABs.

Of course SportsBet with its Best of 3 Totes is even more attractive but they might consider anyone trying this to be a little too over-recreational for their taste.
Ok, I'm just a dumb bean counter........ Can you enlighten me?

Thanks In Advance

Stix 1st February 2007 02:00 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stix
Ok, I'm just a dumb bean counter........ Can you enlighten me?

Thanks In Advance

It's alright I've figured it out....... sheesh!

The IAS account is loaded to the brim !

Moderator 3 2nd February 2007 10:30 AM

It is policy to remove most working links to sites posted in the forum unless by Management.

We welcome contact should a working link have been posted and escaped a moderator's notice.

Moderator.

Stix 2nd February 2007 11:07 AM

Damn, missed it..... email me at:
stix17 at dodo dot com dot au


Thanks

=======================

E-mail address edited - everyone should know by now how to correctly format an address in an e-mail.

How much spam do you want to be sent by the spam robots?
Post your e-mail address in correct link format and the spam robots will love it!

Moderator.

jfc 3rd February 2007 06:38 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stix
Damn, missed it..... email me at:
stix17 at dodo dot com dot au


Thanks

=======================

E-mail address edited - everyone should know by now how to correctly format an address in an e-mail.

How much spam do you want to be sent by the spam robots?
Post your e-mail address in correct link format and the spam robots will love it!

Moderator.


The alleged Counter-measures above which also proliferate this site actually have zero effect. A robot can just as easily parse an adjacent "at" and "dot com dot" versus "@" and ".com.".

I suspect they just aggravate the problem. Robots will be encouraged to harvest here more often in the hope that people will be imprudently disclosing their e-mails through being lulled into a false sense of security.

Ironically the "E-mail us to advertise" link here will actually bewilder and mislead many humans resulting in lost leads, while robots should just lap the precious information up.

In the statistically impossible situation that I was running a site like this, I would have seized on the "Power Pays" opportunity to run associated special promotions including selections plus a strategy to maximising bangs per buck.

Management 3rd February 2007 10:34 AM

Thanks for the information. Our IT professional has read your post. OZmium leaves security issues up to our IT professional.

Chrome Prince 3rd February 2007 01:02 PM

Power Pays are simply a temporary correction.
You can't exploit it when bookies already have in place counter measures such as best of two or average of three.
There are simply better ways to get a better return.

The bottom line is that at the first race in Melbourne, the bookies paid 7c worse than STAB, and in Sydney 6c worse.

The "exchange" paid up to 20% better on both odds on favourites while Top Fluctuation paid the same as STAB.

As far as the "exchange" goes, regardless of what the TAB pays, overall the firming horses win, and the drifters lose, and you can make an overall easy profit on both!

I extend my sympathies to these 1% of Smartgamblers and Pro-Punters who are unable to grapple with an email link.


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