Run of outs
 

Hi all

If i am betting my top 2 picks that have a 40% win strike rate what run of outs could i expect.

What would be the minimum odds i should be taking for each selection.



cheers
ubetido

Go and download "Risk of Ruin".
It will tell you the chances of any run of outs you choose.

And it is patently obvious that you should be taking a minimum price about your selections of $5....Or did I miss something?

ubetido,

There is no maths needed here, just a bit of reason.

A horse with a 40% strike rate is very unlikely to miss having at least 2 wins in any preparation of say 8 runs, so even if those wins were the last or 1st. 2 runs, the outs would be no more than 6.

A horse 's SR is pretty much set in stone within it's first 10 starts. If it's SR is 10% [or whatever] as a 3 yr. old, you won't see it with a 30% SR as a 5yr. old. It will be 10% throughout it's career if it stays in reasonably good shape and health.

Ubetido

You'll be able to work it out in Excel with the formula posted here

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...ead.php?t=13201

In short though you could expect

a run of 5 outs every 19 bets
a run of 7 outs every 54 bets
a run of 10 outs every 248 bets
a run of 13 outs every 1148 bets

You should be thinking in terms of combined odds if your backing two runners each race.

Pixie

AP,

I think your confusing a punter's SR with a runners SR.

A run of outs for a punter with a win SR of 40% [we wish] is completely different to a horses win SR regarding expected runs of outs.

A horse has spells and it's SR cannot be calculated over 100's of runs.

Quote ubetido: ...'my top 2 picks that have a 40% win strike rate'. I think ubetido is talking about the runner's win SR, either each or perhaps combined[?], not himself as a punter.

By your calc. a horse will have had to have run 1148 races [what a horse!] before expecting a run of 13 outs :-))

Ok we've read it differently. I thought he was saying that his two system selections win 40% of the time.

Oh well

Sorry mate I just couldn't resist on that one : -)

Well so long as Ubetido know's what he's talking about...

Hope so too, because his question was a bit ambiguous.

Was it the system or the selections with 40% SR? I thought one and you thought the other.

Hi all

Thanks for your replies and sorry that i created that confusion. I was referring to an overall strike rate not the runners strike rates.

So for every 100 bets 40% of them should win. In the the TOP TWO PICKS.

So i wanted to at least theoretically work out the run of outs i could expect.

Also the minimum odds i should take. $5 as indicated seems obvious 100/20% each selection.

However there may be the following winners odds 2.5 4.5 22.0 11.0 8.5 3.75 5.7 etc So i would need to find an average i guess and as long as it is over $5 it should be ok.

Thanks for you input.

Cheers
ubetido