Favourites In Small Fields
 

This is a subject which has been debated previously but with recent happenings maybe it is time to revisit this controversial subject.
The cynical and suspicious amongst us may believe that happenings are "red hot!"
Whilst this may/may not be the case let's have a rational look at why the percentage of favourites winning in this category of races is much less than the accepted ratio of winning favourites overall(approx 30-34%).
Also, the apparent frequency of the longshot of the field getting up.
I look forward to any thoughts/suggestions as we attempt to unravel this mystery.

Cheers.

And so it continues.....!
Favourites in small fields are a minefield for the general betting public.........so, I ask the question....are some price assessors providing inaccurate initial markets which are intrinsically wrong/inversed?
I'll leave it up to you to make your own decision!
Who is benefiting by strategically backing the exotics?

Cheers.

What did I tell you!
Gosford R1, the hotpot favourite could not reel in the winner, ran 2nd and as there were only 4 starters so no place divs.
Hmmm, I heard a commentator say that he liked days when there are many small fields(eg Gosford today) because you can eliminate certain runners.
What.....the favourite?

Cheers.

Gosford R5:
the favourite in a small field failed to run a place.............yeah....right!

Cheers.

What about this one Xanadu,
Can't remember the race, it was at Ipswich, the heavily backed horse is allowed to boot three lengths ahead in the straight, with the favourite running second.
However, the favourite is going easily and the jockey sits on it without moving until 50m out.
Favourite storms home to run a length second.

It was so obvious, that even the jockey that ran third looked at the jockey on the favourite as they crossed the line, I was watching intently and thought to myself, what's this guy doing, his horse is bolting and he's not doing anything.

Watching almost every race live for the last week, one thing sticks out like the proverbial, when there's real money for a horse, get on.
By real money, I don't mean tote money, I mean course and bookie money.
No matter how short the odds, they are still value because of the phenomenal strike rate.

Today for example:
Shaan
Fortunate Choice
Speelberg
Miss Deevito
Xenial Ruler
Decerto

The list just goes on and on.

CP,

You are a "hardened" punter...so, I ask the question...why are you still betting in these venues?
Refer to one of my previous threads and you will see that I decided a long time ago to never wager in such venues.
For me, it has been the correct decision and my POT has improved significantly...and I won't be going back!

Cheers.

Xanadu,

Because I've finally learned my lesson and following the money.
If it drifts, I lay it.
If it firms with gusto, I back it.

This is the only country where it works - that says something about what's going on.
Try that on UK racing and you end up in the poor house.

CP,

Like you, I am a form student but that method has it's own pitfalls...ie. you are almost always getting "a bad price." Or, is that not the case?
Wouldn't the more lucrative approach be to do your form study and identify those runners which may appear to have been overlooked by the general betting public and may be paying "overs"?
Yeah, you're right in that there is something very worrying regarding happenings in small fields.

Cheers.

Albury/Wodonga R1:

the odds on favourite is ridden in a questionable manner and doesn't even run a place in a small field!
Yet, the jockey is paid a standard riding fee....what do the punters get?
When is this issue going to be addressed by racing/govt officials.
The way it is going, no-one will bet in these fixtures other than the participants and what will be the size of the betting pool then?

Cheers.