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- - Last Start Flops. (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=1576)

I've recently been going through each Sat Metro winner and writing down all it's characteristics and form against the rest of the field when i realised that a lot of long priced winners have good form except for there last start where they flopped.

So i started looking for horses which had won their 2nd last start , but finished 5th or worst last start.

Using just 3 rules:

(1) No races restricted to 3YO's.
(2) Must have raced within 200m of current distance in at least one of its last two starts.
(3) Must have had at least 3 starts from a spell.

This is what it came up with in the last 5 weeks:

August 10 ,

Mr Platinum - UNP.
Night Raider - 1st , $16.90 , $4.50.
Rocky Glen - UNP.

August 17 ,

Friendly Seas - UNP.
Oakfield King - UNP.
Century Kid - 1st , $4.30 , $1.50.
Sportsbrat - UNP.
Sovereign Ties (HURDLE) - UNP.
Aragonce - 3rd , $3.90.
My Lavinia - UNP.
Monde Special - 3rd , $5.50.
Frenzal Rhomb - 3rd , $2.10.
Yusra - UNP.
So Say All Of Us - UNP.
Grumans - 1st , $36.20 , $8.70.
Banyan Bay - 1st , $37.10 , $8.30.

August 24 ,

Outlaws - UNP.
Desert Brigadier - 1st , $7.40 , $2.60.
Kurt - 3rd , $1.30.
Skewiff - 3rd , $1.50.
Cold Start - UNP.
Credentials - UNP.

August 31 ,

Gamesman - 1st , $13.90 , $4.20.
Go Errol - UNP.
Brantwood Manor - 1st , $17.30 , $4.80.
Fouardee - 1st $11.80 , $3.40.
Etoile Bleue - UNP.
Court Of Jewels - 2nd $3.10.
Exceptional Chance (HURDLE) - 1st , $6.50 , $3.20.
Fabio Pennachio - UNP.
Danes Reward - 2nd , $15.10.
Cubiton - 2nd , $1.50.
Court Hero - UNP.
Sovereign Echo - 3rd , $3.10.
Olongopo - 1st , $7.20 , $2.30.
Baitenhausen - 2nd , $3.50.
Jezarich - UNP.
Narwhal - UNP.
Paris Heartbeat - UNP.

September 7 ,

Pristine Partners - UNP.
Platinum Scissors - 2nd , $2.90.
Mister Pom - UNP.
Crimson Gem - 3rd , $8.10.
Sophistocat - UNP.
Rubitano - 2nd , $1.60.
As You Do - UNP.
Boogie Nights - 3rd , $3.70.
Grand Mansion - UNP.

WIN ONLY ,
Invest - $48.
Return - $158.60.
Profit - $110.60.
POT - 230.4%

EACH WAY ,
Invest - $96.
Return - $259.
Profit - $163.
POT - 169.7%.

Only 5 weeks of results which doesn't mean much , but surely a plan with plenty of potential.

With added filters this could be a little gem of a plan.

Any comments or suggestions?

Very, very interesting. You look like you're onto a gem there!

I have run your basic rules over the past 12 months with one exception.Last start only +/- 200.results as follows:-
Meetings considered : 223
Races selected : 343
Horses selected : 417
- Number that won : 33
- Strike Rate/Race : 9.6%
- Strike Rate/Seln. : 7.9%
- Place Strike/Seln.: 26.6%
Return at $1/Seln. : $409.70
- Average Win Div. : $12.42
- Absolute Profit : $-7.30
- Profit on Turnover: -1.8%

I then added:-
1) 1100/2000m
2) good track only
3) age 4 years plus
4) Last start 9/36 days
5) Last start SP maximum 16/1

Past 12 months results as follows :-
PS. The Tri - ex and quinella results are for my infomation only when I couple the selection with other horses rated from my program.

Meetings considered : 223
Races selected : 149
Horses selected : 173
- Number that won : 20
- Strike Rate/Race : 13.4%
- Strike Rate/Seln. : 11.6%
- Place Strike/Seln.: 31.2%
Return at $1/Seln. : $314.30
- Average Win Div. : $15.72
- Absolute Profit : $141.30
- Profit on Turnover: 81.7%

TRIFECTA QUINELLA EXACTA PLACE
Outlay ($) : 3960.00 905.00 915.00 168.00
- Races WITH bets : 149 149 149 144
- Races WITH collect: 9 27 15 48
- Strike Rate/Race : 6.0% 18.1% 10.1% 33.3%
Return at $1/seln ($) : 11104.00 2176.70 3001.20 190.30
- Absolute $ Profit : 7144.00 1271.70 2086.20 22.30
- Profit on Turnover: 180.4% 140.5% 228.0% 13.3%

Note: 1 selection found without results

Test Duration = 00:07:37

Not bad for such a low strike rate.......

Cheers.....

Enjay... what software do you use to test your system? (If you don't mind me asking :smile: )

HI Testa,

I am just about to run your system over the past 3 years...up to July this year.
However I noticed that you included Fouardee in your results @ $11.80. He was first up on 31/8 (after 84 day break). Isn't one rule that the horse must have had at least three runs from a spell?

Shy....

Price Predictor Pro Gold v2.

Can do wonders with it. I have data back to 1999. In fact I will shortly run this system over that period. Keep watching it willonly take about 10 minutes,,,,,
enjay....

I have run the test back to 18/9/99.
Still very low strike rate but acceptable POT. Very long run of outs would cruel the best of players....

Meetings considered : 487
Races selected : 315
Horses selected : 370
- Number that won : 37
- Strike Rate/Race : 11.7%
- Strike Rate/Seln. : 10.0%
- Place Strike/Seln.: 29.7%
Return at $1/Seln. : $485.70
- Average Win Div. : $13.13
- Absolute Profit : $115.70
- Profit on Turnover: 31.3%

TRIFECTA QUINELLA EXACTA PLACE
Outlay ($) : 8448.00 1926.00 1954.00 365.00
- Races WITH bets : 315 315 315 310
- Races WITH collect: 18 52 27 104
- Strike Rate/Race : 5.7% 16.5% 8.6% 33.5%
Return at $1/seln ($) : 14977.00 3139.00 3823.80 348.50
- Absolute $ Profit : 6529.00 1213.00 1869.80 -16.50
- Profit on Turnover: 77.3% 63.0% 95.7% -4.5%

Note: 4 selections found without results

Cheers.......enjay

Sorry Osulldj , didn't notice Foaurdee had that amount of time away , in the formguide i was using it didn't indicate a spell , but you are quite right , Fouardee should not have been a selection.

Enjay , thanks for the results.

Quite right about the low strike rate , but as long as the POT stays how it is , it could be a very profitable system especially with a good staking plan.