Staking to a profit
 

All,

I ran a very quick test on the betfair prices from bat over a month.

Using the retirement plan and only betting on favs every race produced a profit.

also

Using the retirement plan and only laying fav on every race produced a profit.

Betting on Fav:
Start of Month : $1000
End of Month : $2473.42

Laying Fav:
Start of Month : $1000
End of Month : $2691.93

My question is why ?

I have my own thoughts ... but interested to see if anyone else has any insights or research in this area ?

Good Luck.

I am not surprised it works, I am surprised that I am the first response to your post, because I am sure it won't be long before the nay sayers armed with quotes from other people will tell it would'nt continue, it can't work.

Did you take any note of what the return would be just for level staking on the Favs.

Good Punting

Hi wes

I have followed Fav. for sometime .

I read an article saying that The retirement plan is suited to fav. as there is not a long run of losses.

In my opinion finding true fav's is the key.

wesmip1, what amazes me is that the stats have hardly altered since the 1800's apparently always hovering around 30% wins for the fav (true or not) what is even more amazing that the same S/R applies across the board (more or less) for all classes of races, all distances, regardless of the no of runners etc etc, we're talking across the board there.

Of course if you restrict to lower prices the S/R goes up and the LOT decreases but nothing seems to push the +/- to the backers favour, or at least anyone that has managed to do it is not going to tell us.

Top Rank,

Yeah the Favs showed a slight loss of around 2.2% before taking out commission.

partypooper,

I have found several staking plans that can completely take a high strike rate system from a negative to the positive providing

1. It has a high strike rate (25%+)
2. The LOT is no greater than approx 7-8%
3. The appropiate banking structure is setup (more than 1 bank in most instances)

The test i ran quickly was over 1200 bets. Not a small sample by any means against many of the systems posted here.

Good Luck

Wes

For the lay or to back? I'm guessing back. At the risk of being called a nay sayer, one side must be showing a negative expectation and is ultimately doomed :(

Don't want to get into a slanging match about it but would be keen to read your explanation :)

Please reading posting on my thread.

If your saying what it plainly looks like your saying: Taking a LOT of 7-8% and turning it into a profit by adopting a certain staking plan[s], you are claiming the well proved mathematically impossible, even with a 100 'banks'. If your claiming it's not, lets see the maths, not the usual [endless over the years here] rhetoric please.

Anyone who really thinks this thread's basic premise is possible, well grab your life savings and top-hat, as a limo from your nearest Casino [or Bookie] will be waiting for you outside your door!

This old chestnut [selling Snake-oil] has been done to death in this forum over the years but we obviously still have here the equivalent [regarding staking's 'magic' maths. thinkers], of the climate change deniers who believe we can have never-ending industrial growth in a closed biosphere without destroying it, just by being 'clever' about how we do it :-))

Angry pixie,

That was for level stakes backing.

But both laying and staking are in profit using the retirement staking plan.

Good Luck

crash,

I am not saying you won't lose a bank or two but you find that before that you usually make the bank 3-4 times over. Mathematically if you don't have the extra banks then you are certainly going to lose long term.

This only works on a HIGH STIKE RATE system.

The idea is you need to retire a bank everytime it doubles which happens regularly. If you continue with the same bank it will eventually fail and you will lose.

To prove it works I will run the rest of this year (when I get time) and see if it makes an overall profit. My guess is it will.

Good Luck.