Interesting Stats
 

Interesting stats :

Last start winners make up 8.90% of runners.
They win 13.93% of races.

Those that finished 2nd last start make up 8.72% of runners
They win 13.97% of races.

Those that finished 3rd last start make up 8.34% of runners
They win 10.77% of races.

Resuming horses make up 11.37% of runners.
They win 9.91% of races.

Interesting stats if you think about it ....

For instance just restricting yourself to last start winners and those that ran 2nd or 3rd last start you are only going to be looking at 26% of runners ( in a field of 8 this is only 2 runners) and you will be looking at a base set that produces 38.67% winners (almost 40% of races).

Good Luck.

very interesting. There could be a parlay system in there.

mad gambler

Well done. It picked the quinella in Melb r3 $99.20

mad gambler

The problem I think would be having to have more bets than 1 to cover in a race, regardless which of the 4 types of runners above a punter might cover.

So to hit the stats figures over a series of say 1000 races [if you pick and choose your races or fail to cover all qualifying runners in a race, the stats go out the window], a lot of bets would have to be had and by the time you work out the base odds, it probably would be a shocker of an outcome.

This isn't a system. Is a set of statistics that may/may not help people improve their handicapping.

The idea is that restricting yourself to last start winners and those that ran 2nd or 3rd last start you are only going to be looking at 26% of runners ( in a field of 8 this is only 2 runners) and you will be looking at a base set that produces 38.67% winners (almost 40% of races).

ie. It can be used as an initial filter for handicapping. You can safely assume that you are looking at a set of horses that statisically has a higher strike rate. Tuhs reducing the time required to handicap a set of races dramatically.

Nothing is said about odds or the ROT.

Good Luck.

OK, I see what you mean now Wespi.
I'm not really a systems man [I'm always running one or two though from interest]. I avoid last start winners as a system filter and rarely back them from handicapping either as they attract too much attention and have earned a weight penalty [poor value]. If I think they will win I ignore the race.

2nd. and 3rd place-getters and first starters are always worth a look at for systems or handicapping. 3rd to 5th up though, are always worth a close look for fitness reasons.
Many runners have their win[s] for their current campaign [if they have a win at all] at their 3rd., 4th, or 5th, run in from a spell as they are going to reach fitness peak during those runs, keep it for a few more maybe and all down-hill after that. I'm very wary of 2nd. up runners though, as it's often a flat run unless the horse has a very good 2nd. up record.

He's one I knocked up I've been playing with [just some sensible handicapping rules really]:

No Maidens or 2yr old races
Distances: 1000m to 2240m
3 to 6yr old horses only that have raced within 25 days
Good to Dead only condt.
Runs OK in conditions
3rd, 4th, or 5th up only
Won within 200m of race distance
For 1000m to 1200m. distances, must have at least placed or won within 50m.
20% or better S/R for Sat. Metro
10% or better SR for any other day
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Port Macquire today:
r4/6 MT MONASHEE
r5/8 HILFINGHER
r7/9 FAIR GAME
r8/6 MR VOODOO
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Track downgraded to slow so that's was a waste of time!

Then .....quickly to 'heavy'.