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-   -   Another System for Testing (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=16447)

Panther 25th August 2007 01:31 PM

Another System for Testing
 
Some simple rules
1) Highest Average Prizemoney
2) Highest Win Strike
3) Highest Place Strike
4) Last start <183 days

wesmip1 25th August 2007 03:07 PM

Tested a system very similar to this before ...

It has a high strike rate but the odds are so low that it returns a 15% loss.

Good Luck.

Dale 25th August 2007 03:28 PM

That doesnt surprise me Wes,systems like these although sensible are missing two things.

The first is value and the second is an edge.

Panther 25th August 2007 10:35 PM

Would be interesting if you could get data using best fluctuation rather than a particular TAB--last week this system came up with All Silent--TAB paid about $10 while BF paid $14

wesmip1 6th September 2007 02:26 PM

Quote:
1) Highest Average Prizemoney
2) Highest Win Strike
3) Highest Place Strike
4) Last start <183 days

Tested this and got the following:

WROT : 87% ( 13% loss)
PROT: 88% (12% Loss)

Strike rates were 31% and 61%.

You might just make a profit if you tried to take betfair odds or best flucuation. But it wouldn't be worth it.

The problem with this type of system is that 95% of people are looking at the same things which almost guarantees no value in the selections. Also I have found that the top place strike rate, top win strike rate and top API strike rate are not useful when analysing horses under $5 (which the majority of these horses will be).

Good luck.

Panther 6th September 2007 10:23 PM

Thanks for that Wes--don't suppose you would be able to give figures for SP of $5 or better?

wesmip1 7th September 2007 08:47 AM

$5 or better:

Panther not many bets but it showed a huge loss...

WROT : 78% ( 22% loss)
PROT : 80% ( 20% loss)

So taking those out and only taking those at $5 or less:

WROT : 90% ( 10% loss)
PROT : 90% ( 10% loss)

So taking this further andd only taking those at $4 or less:

WROT : 91% ( 9% loss)
PROT : 91% ( 9% loss)

So taking this further andd only taking those at $3 or less:

WROT : 91% ( 9% loss)
PROT : 92% ( 8% loss)

So taking this further andd only taking those at $2 or less:

WROT : 87% ( 13% loss)
PROT : 93% ( 7% loss)

So lets take those abour $2 and below $5 :

WROT : 91% ( 9% loss)
PROT : 90% ( 10% loss)

There are other filters that bring this into profit irrespective of price. If you want to work them out yourself just post what you want tested here.

Good Luck


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