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-   -   system test...$100,000 (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=16591)

lcm123 24th September 2007 03:00 AM

system test...$100,000
 
Hi guy's...I tried posting this before but didn't work I'll try again now.

The system rules:

1. Selection must not be older than 5 years of age
2. Selection last time raced within 7 day's ago
3. Jockey riding selection must be in the top 5 on premiership table
System only was used on Saturday meetings at Adlaide, Melb, Syd Brisbane metro tracks.

I paper tailed this system for 6 months and it made around $100,000 but due to other commitments could not continue (don't know how it would turn out with real cash???) and I was wondering if there is anyone on this forum who has the resources to test this system out for a longer period than I did. Hypothetically, I started with $1000 and bet 5% of the bank to achieve the amount stated above. Look forward to your response.

AngryPixie 24th September 2007 10:18 AM

$100K... must be SOME other commitment
 
Just looking at those system rules my guess is that 5% of your bank will kill you.

crash 24th September 2007 11:07 AM

$1000 [5% bets] into $100,000 in 6 months [?]

Result for 22 Sep 07
CAULFIELD
r5/11 x212 Gran Sasso (6)" M Rodd [unp]
r7/3 1x90 Wonderful World (4)" L Nolen [3rd. 3.90p]
EAGLE FARM
2/5 0x44 Vainroc (4)" A Pattillo [unp]
3/1 2284 Life's Short (5)" A Pattillo [2nd 1.90p]
MORPHETTVILLE
Nil Qualifiers

It's only 1 Sat. but, O/l $200 approx, Return Nil.

wesmip1 24th September 2007 03:41 PM

Just ran the System rules with slight modification ( To restrict to SR, MR, BR, AR Saturdays only) and I don't have a running table of Jockeys in top 5 so I juyst chose a those from the current top 5 list on ************ website...

As per most systems the ROT is approx 86% using Unitab figures.

Good Luck.

lcm123 24th September 2007 05:46 PM

Thanks for running the test wesmip1. What period of time did you run it for? What strike rate did you achieve? It usualy used to give a winner every 6 to 7 selections, but thats not to say it's going to do that now. My records for the 6 months was 36% strike rate.

Crash...not good this week end, eh? Perhaps it will pick a winner next week and put the balance into profit...I hope! ha ha ha.

Angry pixie...I hope that is not the case, but with all staking plans I guess it's all a matter of consistancy of selections and most importantly value dividends...only time will tell, eh?

Thanks again for your responses guys.

partypooper 25th September 2007 01:55 AM

I was thinking that 86% ROT for such a simple system was pretty good actually, especially at Unitab prices, but one thing that puzzles, lcm123, you say that you achieved 1 winner in 6 or 7 (about 14%) yet you go on to say that you achieved 36% S/R?? not knocking just confused?

wesmip1 25th September 2007 07:07 AM

lcm123,

That test was over 3 years of data. The Strike rate was 17%.

Good Luck.

crash 25th September 2007 09:25 AM

I thought ROT of approx 86% pretty good.

With a few simple filters it could be improved no doubt. I'd change the 'within 7 days' to exactly 14 days only [14 days is always a better turn-a-round than 7 days]


1. No 2yr. old races or Maidens, Cups, Stakes or Group races.
2. Distances from 1100m to 2220m on Dead or better tracks only.
3. Selection must not be older than 5 years of age
4. Selection last raced exactly 14 day's ago only
5. Jockey riding selection must be in the top 5 on premiership table from any state.
6. If more than 1 selection ignore race.

lcm123 25th September 2007 12:40 PM

Hi Partypooper...I was going on memory of the strike rate, but I searched around the house and finally found the records of the system test...I'm actualy glad you brought it up because, I'm sorry and embarrassed to say I made a stupid MISTAKE. I discovered that the system that I tested (back in 2002) that made $100,000 was actually used with another system and results are from both...sorry about that.

When I started this thread I forgot that I used both together...sorry again. I separated the two systems and ran it again on it's own...found that for the 6 months, the system (mentioned in this post) actually produced $28,492...which isn't to bad. Sorry again for the stuff up guys.

Heres the results:

64 selections for 23 wins
strike rate 34.93%
longest loosing run was 9.

crash 25th September 2007 05:36 PM

Slight change in rules:

1. No 2yr. old races or Maidens, Cups, Stakes or Group races.
2. Distances from 1100m to 2220m on Dead or better tracks only.
3. Selection must not be older than 5 years of age
4. Selection last raced 14 day's ago or less
5. Jockey riding selection must be in the current top 5 for the track.
6. If more than 1 selection chose the higher rated jockey.

Ballarat today. 3 selections for 2 wins:
5/5 Spinning Lady 11.60w
8/5 Moment of Truth 3.70w


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