Ballarat Cup day
 

BALLARAT wed.
3/1 Yappa
4/5 Sunset Marquis
5/6 Suspects
6/3 Northern Point
7/6 Cruyfforme
8/ Saliente, Expunge, Arbitration, Sentire
9/6 Speedymac
10/6 Not A Copy
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Feel free to add your own selections!

Morning crash. Any subs for Sunset Marquis / Northern Point ?

Dead 4. Brings Sentire right into this for the Cup. Might even get wetter.

I'll have to have another look at my picks due to scratchings and dead 4. Yappa still good in the 3rd.

Race 1 No 7 Dehere O'Dedog

Champion

After scr. and dead 4:

BALLARAT wed.
3/1 Yappa
4/7 Boss Hot Rocks, 4 Miracletto
5/13 Serval
6/1 Message Bank [only 4 horses in it]
7/6 Cruyfforme
8/ Saliente, Expunge, Arbitration, Sentire [if slow can win it]
9/6 Speedymac
10/6 Not A Copy

Morning Crash

Glad you didnt make an attempt in the first 3 races. A very tough day indeed.
7 of the 10 races have many horses having had only around 10 starts each to their name, meaning we have average horses with enough meaningful stats to show us what we should expect against horses on the up still building their profile. Along with an awful lot of x's around the current form this is very much a carnival day and punters beware!

One of my sytems came up with Cruffforme & i must say ..of all the horses in all the races today none will get a better run. Nearly all others (13 of the remaining 15) are backmarkers & with the scratchings this morning taking out 4 of the 6 'just off the pace runners.' This leaves just him & Billywing to run along at a canter. Drawn in 5 he wont be asked anything of him until very very late in the race and i just dont know if any of these will be able to make up the ground. If he cant place here under these conditions then he'd be a miss for the future. I am assuming theres no track bias in favour of the backmarkers either.

The Cup itself >> i wont be punting as i dont on Country Cups. However if you look back on the horses King Of Ashford has raced against it would put alot of these to shame.
i.e
11/06 Desert War -beaten 11.7 (Mackinnon) 2000m 58kg barrier 14/15
11/06 Gallant Guru -beaten 1.9 (Sandown Classic) 2400m 58kg barrier 11/14
2/07 Recaptialise -won by 2 1st up for 3 months 60kg
2/07 Pompeii Ruler / marasco / Aqua D'amore beaten 2.7 (St. George Stakes ) 59kg
9/07 Rubiscent / Miss Finland / Marasco beaten 6.7 (Underwood) 59kg
and of late 4l in the Toorak (Divine Madonna)
1.5l Coogney
4.8l Saab

Other then Sentire, who has been racing in some very high quality races of late i cant see these 2 being too far away at the finish.

Good Luck!

2 things noticed today


1 >> its a bit late however a good lesson i go by.

On-course Deher O'Dedog >> $2.05 >> $2.65 >> $2.55 >> $2.45
Firstly $2.05 to $2.65 was an indication it wasnt going to win.
Secondly the best bet on Betfair were a few $2k bets = very very weak.
Thirdly the bookies werent a bit interested in offloading onto betfair and were happy to 'take the risk'

Result = a 'battling 3rd" well beaten.

Secondly ....and again i dont bet on races where horses have had few starts however today at Cheltenham 5/5 Gunning For Gold is dropping from a decent 3rd in a $30k race to a $6k race today << i would suggest this gelding has got something to offer and each way odds would tempt even me!

King Of Ashford has had a couple of reasonable runs, but mixes his form. I don't think he will do a thing on a dead 4 [needs it dry].

yes crash understand, although a former Kiwi and has won on the slow over there i agree he's probably not as strong these days in the softer ground. As i'm not betting on it i really didnt get into the nitty, gritty of surfaces or race maps.....i was just pointing out the big difference in the class drop only he and Sentire have found themselves into.
Now the tracks been downgraded to slow Sentire certainly comes into it more then King Of Ashford but the class drop cant be overlooked for both. King Of Ashford is also a backmarker which i dont think will help today. Again, if the case would bring Sentire into it even further.