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-   -   Best way to bet (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=17084)

Mr Quaddie 6th January 2008 01:09 PM

Best way to bet
 
what is the best way to bet to get your money back?

do you like to bet each way on a lopsided basis like 1*4 or 2*8 or do you bet on my than one horse in a race?

Ozgunner 6th January 2008 01:46 PM

best way to bet? don't ;)

Ozgunner 6th January 2008 02:15 PM

okay [with serious look]
for me depends on my predicted race outcome & price considerations
how I bet can vary race to race
ie. expected finishing position, expected margin between, groupings [main chances, secondary chances, no. in each] likely price, actual price [close to start time], site tipster tips [where I'm betting]
eg1. small group of main chances - might concentrate on win & banker mutiples
eg2. majority of chances in main [chance] groups not tipped by site tipster - might concentrate on boxed multiples
eg3. main groups consist of favs & other good priced starters [some of which I've rated better than favs] - might go ew [1x2] or [1x4] for the rougher ones & also take tri with favs to win from remainder of main groups
eg4. favs rated clearly on top - might play the first4 banking with the favs
eg5. I've rated a number [at least 2] of chances better than the fav & these chances have good recent form & have had at least 3 starts since a spell - might lay the fav
etc

Ozgunner 6th January 2008 02:30 PM

..also dabble for the place if the predicted outcome fits

..how about you Mr Quaddie?

Mr Quaddie 6th January 2008 02:52 PM

if there is a odds-on favourite then i would bank it and put the others in some multiples (trifectas).

i take note of those horses that have been plunged inside the last 15mins of betting, even those that have been plunged but closed at around $20 prooves to be worthwhile place bets.

other than that i would bet for the win on multiple horses. if the favourite was paying $3.80 then it'll allow me to place 3 $1 win bets. Lets say I put win bets on the favourite $3.80 and two other horses $5.60 and $7.10. if any wins well i make a profit. i get three win chances in the race to make a profit. the problem can occur in that the final odds are not calculated in time of jump, so you must be sure that the favourite will not go under $3 in the last moments of betting if you are putting on three $1 win bets.

i like to hedge my bets with a 1*4 combo. if the horse wins it pays well, if it places (second, third) then as long as the place dividend is $1.20 then i make a profit still. $1.30 * $4 = $5.20, profit of at least 20 cents.

rabbitz 6th January 2008 03:09 PM

Yesterday I place bet all day and out of 5 bets I had four results the horses won 2 of the races and ran 2nd and third in the others
You can get small profits this way but you should have a reasonable place divvi ,ie at least $1.40 because with a level stake 5 bets at $1.20 will have you losing if one doesnt run a place

It is diificult to win consisently on the punt and I think you must be very selective and have a lot of willpower

Some ppl who put out systems have very strict criteria and if no horse meets all criteria on a given day then there is NO BET that day...which can be a bit boring particularly if you have a bet for enjoyment

Mr Quaddie 6th January 2008 03:29 PM

if we have $1/$4 bets, and get a strike rate of 4 places (no winners) out of 5, we would need each horse to produce a place dividend of $1.60 to make a profit at the end of the day.

bets = $25

$1.60 * $4 = $6.40 * 4 places = $25.60..so even if we got no winners, and one selection comes unplaced we could still make a profit at the end of $0.60 cents.

King Cugat 6th January 2008 03:51 PM

its a question with no tail i think.

bet to get your money back?

> short term? as in your trying to create as much opportunity for a good win per race, but have a saver whether it be the same horse in a mutli or another horse completely?
or long term as in best chances to get through weeks / months of betting?

westman 6th January 2008 03:59 PM

To a large extent, the size of the pool dictates if I bet, my type of bet & how much I bet. The bigger the pool the better.

crash 6th January 2008 04:58 PM

Bet to win only. In the long run you will either win more or lose less. It's all in the odds. You can stuff around with betting every which way till global warming kills us all, but bet to win only and you will at least die knowing you had the best odds overall, right until the end!


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