Backing the betfair 1st & 2nd Favs
 

I'm finding some success today.

Rules:
Back both the betfair 1st & 2nd fav for a win, when the 1st fav is showing odds over $2. Bet within 5mins to jump.

My logic is that the market has done the form and reckons these two horses have the best chance at winning. With odds of at least $2 you will make a profit regardless which of the two wins. Its hoped that you would be consistently backing the winner so that you can "build up the bank" enough to absorb any losses when an outside chance beats the two favs.

Results so far:
AR3: 3&5, 5-1st 3.4X6=20.4-12=+8.4
ZS7: 1&3, 3-1st 2.72X6=16.32-12=+4.32
MR2: 1&6, 6-1st 3.2X6=19.20-12=+7.2
Update: lol tempted fate :), SR3 1st or 2nd fav did not get the win.
SR3: 3&6, -12
Update#2:
MR3: 1&6, 6-1st 3.85X6=23.1-12=+11.1
BR3: 3&6, -12

Wow look at those numbers, both no 3 &6 were the favs for both BR3 & SR3 and both got beat... spooky. And 1&6 for MR2 & MR3 paid...

looks like we peaked early!!! :)

damn betfair is offline ;(

As Captain Mannering used to say to Jones: "Now you are living in the realm of phantasy"

Don't panic, don't panic :-)

Heres a technique you might like to have a go at.
Target the 1st & 2nd Market Fav.

These have a statistal SR of apprtox 50%

Reverse Dutch book on the 2 selection
Horse A is say $3.00 divided into $10 = $3.33
Horse B is say $6.00 divided into $10 = $1.66

Now reverse the amounts for each horse.
Bet $3.33 on Horse B if it wins, we get back $19.98
Bet $1.66 on Horse A if it wins, we get back $4.98
Total O/L $4.99

If Horse C gets up , we ill have the equivalent div of $3.99 for our O/L
As opposed to $3.00 for our O/L thats a 33% increase .

I feel one's returns will be stronger long term doing it this way.

If you feel you deserve even greater returns, target the 1st & 3rd favs.
It takes patience to use this idea , especially when one sees the Favs getting up all day, but it usually pays off with just one good div.

SR for 1st fav is 30% , 2nd Fav 20% , 3rd Fav 15%

Cheers.