Can't lose system ???
 

Been thinking of this for awhile now, is it possible to back every horse in a race and still win in the long run? I'm not talking about dutch betting, betting the same amount on every horse.

We now that 1st Fav win 33% of races with a return of 94% you would need to back the Fav at 7% higher odds to be in front.

Same for 2nd Fav 20% win return of 89% so you would need 12% better odds to come out in front.

and so on right down to the longest odds. so in theory you should win on every runner.
Would this work???

All things being equal, that is, every horse paid the odds according to it's true chances AND NO TAB TAKEOUT of course it would work, but only as far as you would get your money back!
But are all things equal?

As Iomaca says, it's the takeout that gets you or commission, otherwise you break even.
But if you have the same stakes on every runner, you're going to lose more often until a longshot comes in, because the number of runners is greater than the odds of the fancied horses.

Of course the point is that you don't have to bet every horse in the race , not rocket science I know but for the benefit of those that don't, just narrow the field down to say 5 by your own (proven ratings) or others, and always bet every horse ONLY when the odds available are greater than the rated odds, by a margin that you set and correct through practice say, 20%,30% or whatever, maybe even 100% (double overlay) so no matter what happens in a particular race you have to win (long term) there! doesn't that sound easy? hehehee!

Sound more like the 'willl lose' system !

Crash, is it not true that "IF" the ratings over time have proven to say break even, then if you only back the overlays you HAVE to win? it's like getting 5-4 permanently about black/red isn't it even counting in the zero? i.e. 1000 spins, = 500 x 5-4 - 28 (zeros i.e. 1 in 35) = 97 Profit (about 10%)

The problem is if you don't get your 10% 20% over and you dont back that horse odds are it will win. You would have to now what % of horses win/lose that are not traded (going by betfair odds) above the price you think it will pay.(rated price maybe)

Spot on!
Something not many have properly investigated.

Crackone, nah, you've missed it completely, you are thinking in terms of 1 race.
Go to my example of 1000 spins, or even 10,000 spins, if you only bet when you have 5-4, say 1000 times out of that 10,000 spins (on an even money chance) YOU WILL WIN.

What you are doing here is reversing "what the bookie" does really, he/she dose not think in terms of today, tomorrow, next week, next year even, if the mathematical odds are in his/her favour it is DEFINITE that the book will come out in front, no luck involved!

In the same way that the casino will give you evens about black or Red, odds or even, but that little ol' zero GUARANTEES the edge for the house in the long run!

Hi partypooper,

I think what crackone is getting at is, horses are quite different to fixed odds on a table game. There are no variables in a standard table game, odds aren't shifting (except of course card counting and card games in general) but all wheel based games, the odds are firm.
With horses, there are so many variables, that the ratings may be more accurate sometimes than others, they might be overall very accurate, but when other factors are encountered they are not.
Therefore, just backing overs, might not be profitable,as the weight of money on some selections indicate more than is revealed in the form or ratings.
You might look at all favourites for example and back only those that you can get a decent price on, BUT you may only get a decent overlay, because there is no support for it, and no support means you need at least 40% overlay to make money, 10% or 20% won't cut it.