new system ideas
 

It seems that in general those horses carrying the least weight (ignoring apprentice claims) pay more than the top weights. And also the horses that draw the wider barriers pay more than those with the inside barriers. IMO, weights and barrier draws are overrated, but that they still influence many punters bets, so hopefully that translates into some potential value bets.

Could someone with a database run a test for me for both the win and the place?

Saturday Metro tracks only.
Good and Dead tracks only.
Ignore 2yo, maidens and jump races.
Only consider those horses carrying the least weight in each race (ignore apprentice claims).
Of the remaining horses, only consider the one with the widest barrier.

Min. weight horses often come in at good prices. I find that it happens more at mid-week races than Sat. races though. Possibly because Sat. metro horses handle weight rises better than mid-week class.

Saturday 22/03/08 Results

BR1 #8 2nd $6.80
BR3 #6 Rhymenoreason UNP
BR4 #14 Embracing 3rd $16.80
BR5 #12 Prend UNP
BR6 #10 Finder Page 3rd $6.2
BR7 #8 Bold Reason 3rd $4.10
BR8 #19 Whispering Gypsy UNP
SR1 #7 Guru 3rd NTD
SR2 #11 Little Sai Wan 2nd $4.40
SR4 #5 Mimi Lebrock 3rd $2.00
SR5 #10 Twin Wing UNP
SR6 #13 Gamble Me UNP
SR7 #9 Guillotine UNP
SR8 #13 Lantwin UNP
SR9 #10 Grey Stream UNP
MR2 #8 Frisco Jess UNP
MR3 #8 Able Dragon 1st $29.70/$6.20
MR4 #8 On a Promise UNP
MR5 #7 Come FLy With Me 3rd $2.80
MR6 #14 Senorita de Lago UNP
MR7 #8 Dance on Air 2nd $2.40
MR8 #12 Hike UNP

Win
Out: $22.00
In: $29.70
+$7.70

Place
Out: $22.00
In: $51.70
+$29.70

With an average dividend of around $5.00 for the place and a healthy place strike rate, it looks like this might have some potential as a place system.

I'd be interested how the system pans out mid-week as a comparison.

Crash, by my reckoning today's qualifiers are:

Scone
R3 no.9
R9 no.13
R10 no.14

Moe
R5 no.8
R6 no.8
R7 no.10
R8 no.10

As a matter of interest, I have been betting Duets and also Place using multiple selections (half of the field). Some of the divvies have been quite large especially when the higher TAB numbers happen to place. The largest Place divvy to date has been $17.

My idea would be to ignore barriers and only back mid-week horses at min. weight 3rd. or 4th up. good or dead tracks.

*rule out anything over 50/1

Moe
3/9,12 [9 $1.60p]
Scone
3/9 x
5/7 x
7/11 x
8/13,14 [14 $12.20w $2.80p]
10/13 ?

Bunbry
7/13
8/10
CHELTENHAM PARK
5/4 [$1.80p]
7/8
8/10
IPSWICH
4/4
5/8
7/9,14 [14 $3.40p]
8/10
SANDOWN-HILLSIDE
6/15 $30.80w $7.50p

I ran the widest barrier idea over several hundred races & found it worked very well in races with....

. Field size 8-12 runners.

.Targeting the bottom 3 horses in the list of runners.

. Selection is the widest barrier of the 3 runners.

. Bet for a place only.

Try & only bet if $3+ can be had at jump time.

It could work well if the Betfair SP service gets up & running, that way all bets could be place at once with a min value attached to the bet to be placed.

On the figures I ran through, I came up with this betting 1% of bank.
SR 20%
POT 20%

Some of the divs are quite amazing e.g. $17.00, $23.00

Cheers.

Thanks guys.
 

Thanks Bhagwan for your time in playing around with those ideas and running them through your database. The reason I like the idea of wide barrier draws, is because you would think that it would give the jockey the best opportunity to try to position the horse where he/she thinks it will perform best from. For instance, it might be a bit harder to get your horse to settle back early so that it can make a strong finish if it's drawn in the middle, where it's first instinct will likely be to keep up with or outperform the horse either side of it. The same horse drawn wider, shouldn't feel as much pressure. Just a theory. Regardless, it looks like we've found some value bets. Thanks again for your efforts Bhagwan.

Thanks for your suggestions too Crash. Food for thought.