Should I bet this? Very keen.
 

G'day lads,
I have been doing my own Saturday Ratings for about 3 years now and database them religiously. They are quite good and better than Prepost.

Anyways about 2 years ago I was looking at this system using my top raters with a few filters and gave up after a slight run of outs. I kept the notes as it was still in profit and rechecked it this week and was startled to see the results as I know this game is damn hard to make a buck or two long term.

I am very confident as it has hit back with a vengeance and this year so far it is showing a 30% profit. The filters are the same as 2 years ago, hasn't been changed. Average bets are about 3 a week and the results are one tote only (so plenty of scope for much bigger returns). All price ranges are showing a profit too (even under $3.00).

I am not interested in selling anything, just want to know from experienced punters if I should give this one a hit. I am quite happy to send someone an excel sheet with selections in order and graphs for further detailed analysis.

Results are below..

Selections 474
Wins 179
WR $595
WSR 38%
WPOT 26%
Places 338
PR $502
PSR 71%
PPOT 6%
3 Max Wins $11.50, $10.30, $9.20
3 Max Places $4.10, $3.80, $2.60
3 LROs 15,11,9

and since I shelved it (Last 2 years portion)..

Selections 303
Wins 114
WR $371
WSR 38%
WPOT 22%
Places 215
PR $320
PSR 71%
PPOT 6%
3 Max Wins $11.50, $10.30, $9.20 (same 3)
3 Max Places $4.10, $3.80, $2.60 (same 3)
3 LROs 15,11,9 (same 3)

As you can see win/place strike rate remains at 38%/71%.
Any advice much appreciated.

Without the system rules, there's not much to advise on.

Onions.

From the figures it looks a goer to me.

My advice is to take the plunge and go for it betting say 1 % of bank without reducing.

Good luck.
darky.

Onion,

It's a crying shame you gave up, it seems very apeeling ;)

Your overall profit is 121 units
Divide that by $11.50, (max divvy) is 10.52 winners making up the profit.
Your average win dividend is $3.32
This gives 36.44 winners making up the profit.

Your system only relies on 28% of the profit from outsiders and 72% from the average dividend.

So far excellent!

Combine this with Betfair SP and you probably have a 35% to 40% win edge.

You are also relying on 6.8 placegetters for the place component.

My feedback -

Looks the goods, as long as you can withstand the outs and not give up, this looks like it has legs, very nice legs too ;)

It is rare to find such high POT not relying on longshots and rarer to find this kind of system that returns a statistical place profit not generated from one longshot placegetter.

You're definitely onto something because the win and place dynamics reflect it's not an anomoly or fluke.

Bet wise and prosper :D

Flaming a new member. Five day's suspension.

'f' or 'c' word as personal attack = suspension. No need for that sort of language on this site. Seven days' suspension.

Hi Onion
I have found the systems with only a few bets a week, like yours, tend to perform more consistantly rather than plans with heaps of selections.

Cheers.

Edited out anything not relevant to the betting topic.
Moderator 1.

I love such statistics.

Applying Kelly Staking over the 777 bets:

24.3% POT
0.107 Kelly Fraction
2.60% Bank growth per bet
26.96 Bets to Double Bank
475 mill =Bank Multiple


So a bank of only $2.11 would have netted over a billion dollars profit.

Flaming a member is flaming a member. There is no justification. Full stop.
Moderator.

Hmm I dont understand what if the 1st bet loses