Improvers
 

G'day folks,
while casually scrolling through old systems etc. I came across one that was really simple but made sense and so I thought I'll just have a look at what would've happened on todays races - and this is what happened.
(Notice these are in race time order)
Geelong - Race 3 #12 - KERCHING (thats not the name of the horse its the sound of a cash register) Won 3.40/1.70.
Geelong - Race 4 #10 - KERCHING Won 3.40/1.30
Geelong - Race 5 # 5 - DING 3rd -/1.50
Canberra - Race 3 # 1 - Won 6.10/1.90
Geelong - Race 8 # 4 - unpl
Canberra - Race 6 # 8 - 3rd -/2.70
Geelong - Race 10 # 5 - unpl
Outlay $7.00
Win Return $12.90
(Place Return $9.10)

As this looks real easy and quite promising I thought I'd have a look at it for tomorrows races.
Stay tuned , I'll be back very soon.

Cheers ......Mancunian

This selection system is based on a simple system originally from Mohammed in the UK and then adjusted by Neiltown on another forum and then slightly amended by me.

The selection must have had at least 3 starts since a spell.
The formline for its last 3 starts must be :
3rd last start unplaced
2nd last start placed (3rd or 2nd, not 1st).
last start placed (3rd or 2nd, not 1st).

I'm running with this at this stage - if it looks moderately promising may consider an odd filter or two - but prefer the simple life if possible.

Here are the selections for SAT 26 JULY based on the above -
(NOTE again these are in Race Time order)
TSV R3 #6
Belm R1 #3/5/9 (will work on eliminator rule later)
Donald R6 #10
TSV R5 #16
Donald R7 #1
TSV R6 #14
Newc R6 #5
Dmb R7 #6
Twb R4 #6 and 8
Twb R6 #2

Cheers....Mancunian

ive improved of late
less wine more thought
leads to more money

Oops - almost forgot the main meetings that I had marked on the form guide.
So added to the list for today are:
MV R1 # 4
MV R3 # 3
MV R5 # 9
Cant R4 # 10
Chelt R1 # 6
Chelt R4 # 8
Chelt R7 # 4

These are not in time order now.

Cheers......Mancunian

Delete Cant 4-10 and Chelt 7-4
these were last start winners and shouldn't have been included - sorry for mistake.
Cheers.... Mancunian

Onya ****************

Poor results :
MV 1-4 Scr
Chelt 1-6 3rd -/2.30
TSV 3-6 unpl
MV 3-3 unpl
Belm 1-3 Won 2.20/1.50
Belm 1-5 2nd -/5.00
Belm 1-9 unpl
Don 6-10 Scr
Chelt 4-8 unpl
TSV 5-16 unpl
Don 7-1 3rd -/2.30
MV 5-9 2nd -/2.50
TSV 6-14 unpl
New 6-5 unpl
Dmb 7-6 unpl

Bets 13
Wins 1 return 2.20
Placings 5 return 13.60

Could be a possibility for place betting tho - so I'll follow it for a few days and just give periodic progress reports.

Cheers....Mancunian

Mancunian this is what i like look at on occassions

3rd last start unplaced
2nd last start -- better than the previous start
last start placed 2nd

Some examples for todays races are

Benalla
R5-1 052
R6-9 942
R8-4 032

Kalgoorie
R2-3 072



Cheers Red

Reded, coincidentally I some time ago looked at a similar system. I can't remember why I stopped because I seem to think it was not doing too badly. I had two filters, the first being its last three runs was not to be interrupted by a spell, and the second was that it had to be at single figures in the pre-post market.

I looked at yesterday's results and those at double figures in the pre-post were:

Townsville R2 no.11 - unplaced
T'ville R5 no.16 - unplaced.
Darwin R7 no.12 - unplaced
Cheltenham R1 no.6 - 3rd $2.30
C'ham R4 no.8 - unplaced.
C'ham R5 no.13 - unplaced

There was one horse whose last 3 runs were broken by a spell and was also double-figures in the pre-post - it was Moonee Valley race 7 no.5 which too was unplaced.

The "genuine" selections were:

C'bury R8 no.5 - unplaced.
Moonee V R5 no.9 - placed $2.50
N'cle R3 no.4 - placed $1.60
N'cle R6 no. 8 - unplaced
C'ham R3 no.5 - placed $1.50
C'ham R7 no.7 - unplaced
Dombeen R7 no.7 - Won $7.50 and $2.60
Darwin R6 no.2 - Won $2.40 and $1.50.

By my reckoning there were 8 selections for 2 winners paying a total of $9.90 and 5 placegetters for a return also of $9.90. Not the worst of results.


If anyone is interested, there are 2 selections today:

Scone R9 no.5 - Snowstream
Sun Coast R4 no.5 - labour Day.

Mancunian, just a thought, I have been place betting (seriously) for 4 years now, overall and many thousands of bets shows just over 4% POT.

Now cosider this, for 2008 (only from Jan) it yoyo'd around break even for about 5 months, and then began to pull into that tiny profit again til present. After a particularly good run, BUT overall for 4 years plus the POT only changed by a very small figure during this "bad" time.

What I'm getting at is that you should not write an idea off after a bad run, keep on checking it out and tweaking it , you never know!