Top 3 Plan.
 

Rules.
Target races with 9-13 runners only.

Target the first 5 names in Pre post market.

.Must be in top 5 in Win percentage rankings.

.Must also be in top 5 in Place percentage rankings.

If left 3 or less selections bet them all.

cheers.

Hey Bhagwan,

Sounds interesting, have you any stats on this..?

Paul

It seems to work best on any Handicap race where longer priced horses tend to get up.

Cheers.

Hi Bhagwan, I did a brief test on this (on paper) on Tuesday Races.
I left out Maiden races and only went on the others that had 9-13 starters.
The result i got wasn't brilliant Out $24 for Return of only $4.90 (2 winners from 9 races) BUT I did a comparison on the same races using top 5 API (suggested by LuckyBoy in another post), which gave a return of $22 from an outlay of $31. Not remarkable, people may say but if we had dutched them on an outlay of $10 per race the result was out $100 return $107. Still not a big deal but this was 4 winners paying $11.10/$2.10/$5.90/2.80 and there were quite a few bets on horses showing over $13.00 at the time.
(After looking back at the races 4 of them had 4 qualifiers so under the top 3 rule they would not have been eligible. Of those 4 races there was only the $2.10 winner therefore the real picture is much better.
i.e using the API for the TOP 3 the outlay would've been $19 and return $19.90 and dutching woul have been outlay $60 return $94.40).
Sorry about that confusion

I was "Dutching" probably a couple of hours before the jump, so a potential max price limit would help.
Certainly needs a bit more attention.

Too much on this weekend to have much of a go myself, but when I can I'll try out on slightly adjusted rules :

Handicap Races but not maidens.
9-13 starters after scratchings.
First 5 in the prepost market taken from R & S.
First 5 in API (Ave Prizemoney Index).
If 3 or less qualifiers in a race, back them for a win or Dutch them.

Thanks again Bhagwan for pointing us in the right direction

Regards......Mancunian

Thanks M for your valuable input & kind words.

Those figures look impressive.

Dutching does improve the figures where the winners are shorter priced which makes up the majority of winners , but if its a day where the odd $15.00 & $20 winners decide to get up, betting the same amount will obviously produce a greater return.

I guess its a question of wheather its a day for the 2 favs getting up or a day for the longer priced horses that get up.

I have always been amazed at some of the excellent prices that get up in Hcp events, therefore well worth targeting.

I use Betfair where the prices are often double to that show on the TAB once they get over $10 as shown on the TAB.
For instance Townsville R4/6 Thur 25th Simones Got Class paid $16.70 UniTAB
it was 3rd Fav in R & S pre post, but it was up to 10 pts better on Betfair.

Cheers.

Selections for todays Races :
Randwick
Race 4 - 2/6/9
Race 5 - 3/5/10
Race 7 - 1/5/10
Kyneton
Race 6 - 1/2/3
Race 8 - 1/2/3

May revisit Kyneton Races 7 and 9 to get prices closer to jump time as they both have 4 qualifiers but 1 in each race may get eliminated if outside the price range.

Cheers.....Mancunian

No good today
on win bets it would've been out $15 return $2.40.
dutching outlay (at $10 per race) $50 for a return of ($12.40).

Will check a bit further for a while

cheers...Mancunian

A few selections for today:

Ipsw
R7 - 2/5
R9 - 1/3/10
Geel
R5 - 2/4/6
R7 - 1/9
Wyong
R7 - 1/2/4
R8 - 1/3/5
Belm
R4 - 6/8

May check Belm Races 5, 7, 8 later to look for possible eliminations - too many qualifiers at this stage.

Cheers.....Mancunian

Results
7 Races 4 winners
For Win Bet - Outlay $18 return $22.10 Vic TAB.
Dutching @ $10 per race - Outlay $70 return $56.50.

Note : one left out because div showing $19.10 when I checked some 2 hours before the race was Ipsw Race 7 #1 which won and paid $13.00 !

Anyway aside from that there are some promising signs and I feel worth pursuing a bit further.

Cheers.....Mancunian.

Top 3 sels Fri 03 Oct

MRY R5 - 2/3/5
MRY R7 - 2/8
ROK R6 - 1/6/8
ROK R7 - 2/3/5
TAM R8 - 4/5/8
WMB R8 - 1/3

cheers.....Manc