Punting is all about learning.

Whether you are a novice or a pro, you can always gain something from research, forums such as this, and analysing your own mistakes.

It's easy to blame the horse, the jockey or your wife for "bad luck" etc.

The most important thing I have learnt is to analyse your own betting habits and mistakes regularly.

Prepared to admit when I am wrong, there are two decisions that I made some months ago which cost me money and if anyone learns from this it has been worthwhile.

1. I thought Northerly was not as good this time in. I thought he didn't show the same zest as last year. Boy was I wrong! I think he is better than he ever was - even if he doesn't run a place on Saturday.

What can I learn from this...

The horse is older this year. As horses get older, generally they take longer to be race fit. Northerly just wasn't fit at his first two runs this time in. He didn't look comfortable being squeezed a little mid race etc.

The moral of the story...never write off a class horse.

2. Bel Esprit
No doubt a great sprinter. When led and weakened badly over more distance in two starts, I thought they must be crazy trying to run this horse over more distance each time. I should have realised that John Symons is an extremely astute trainer with a fantastic setup at Macedon Lodge. He trains his horses for endurance / stamina by making them work on slow rising tracks. A bit like Kiwi's preparation back in New Zealand.

I never even considered that Bel Esprit could be ridden from the back of the field rather than on the pace as this was his trademark.

What a versatile horse!

The moral of the story...

Don't always look at what you know, think about what could be. Don't fantasize, rather just explore all possibilities before making judgements.

Phew...it's off my chest.

Hope this helps others in the future too.

Excellent topic EI.

I agree with your comments on Northerly as I thought a similar thing. Something else I learnt though was that those early races he contested all had slow early pace and it became clear from my own pace and speed figures that Northerly had lost his ability to sit and sprint the way he could in the past. As he has gotten older he has become more dour and is much better suited to a fast pace where he can keep wearing away at a solid speed.

The lesson is that this happens to most horses, as they get older they lose the zip they once had. Evidence Sunline in the George Main, led them in a walk but then couldn't sprint the way she used to and Defier went straight past her. Next start she sets a more solid tempo and maintains it through the race and she is narrowly beaten but nearly breaks the track records and returns a career best performance over 2000m.

I also agree with what you wrtoe about Bel Esprit...and the distance points goes back to a point i made on this forum that in the absence of evidence to the contrary, you are better of to accept the trainers judgement about a horses ability to step up to a certain distance than make a guess yourself. I think Bel Esprit proved this in the Guineas (even though he ran 2nd) and Northerly certainly proved it in the Caulfield Cup.

I too was surprised by Bel Esprit's 1600m ability but anyone wants to back him in the Cox Plate on the strength of that run should look at the tired 3YO's he ran past. Before anyone says "what about his sectional" well I say "why wouldn't the horse run a fast sectional?" - it bludged at the back of the field for 2/3rds of the race.
Tomorrow the pressure will be 100% from the 800 and he will be 6-12 lengths behind Sunline, Northerly, Lonhro, Defier etc at that time after already going 1200.
He's gotta get a stitch in my book.
3YO Cox Plate winners over the past 30 years have been Surround (triple Oaks winner), Red Anchor (Derby winner) and Octagonal (Derby winner).
Do you think BE is a Derby horse?
20/1 available here for the Cox Plate whilst stocks last.

Yes excellent topic EI, although I am talking from the other side of the equation with Northerly. I've never backed him in WA as he is usually weighted out of it eg. last year's Railway. The big difference ths time in has been Fred's decision to take the blinkers off, I think. It now appears the running style is to get to the front and defy the overtakers. Without blinkers he sees them coming up and digs that much deeper. As Damien Oliver said aftere the Caulfield Cup, "It's one thing to get him Northerly,another thing entirely, to get past him".
Forgotten horse of the Cox Plate?? - Fields Of Omagh at $17 - he was only a neck from Northerly last week.