Favs. dissected
 

Would anyone help out with some research I'm attempting to do long hand which is proving to be very tedious.

Basically just splitting favs into Handicaps and non Handicaps, and then disecting into catagories eg.

2YO, 3yo, Maiden Races, then into distances say 1200 and LESS, 1201-1399, 1400 to 1600, 1601 to 1999, over 2000.

Then possibly adding some other factors such as last start finishing position, days since run etc etc.

Obviously what I am attempting to establish is where to concentrate my betting especially as I bet for the place.

EG. maybe I should be looking at say,

The Fav. in Non Handicaps, 8-12 runners, (with at least 5 career starts)
Placed 1,2,or3 and within 3.5 lengths of the winner last start (within 21 days)
Races 1201-1999 metres only
Metro Races only (7 days)
50% + Place record
Rated 97+ (unitab)
Delete 3kg claimers.

NOTE EXAMPLE ONLY, I don't have enough data to qualify that yet, but if anyone is prepared to run it through their box of tricks it would be appreciated.

Partypooper,
That's a fairly big project to do.
I just don't have the time to help you with the mad rush towards Christmas and a server that decided to burn itself out.
However, there'd be no point to my post if I couldn't offer something ;)

As you bet for the place, and usually fancied runners, here's something.

Horse must be first or second favourite
Do NOT bet on 2 or 3 year old horses - they are overbet too much when favourite
Last start winners
Within 7 days.

At TAB prices this returns only 1.13% loss on turnover for the place, with a 62.28% place strike rate.

Betting Top Fluctuation or fixed price with a bookie is most certainly a profit spinner.

cheers.

Chrome, thanks for the feedback, yes I guess it is a pretty big ask.

Your idea looks interesting "MORE" research hahah! anyway what I'm after with the other thing is a lot more action, I've got one faithful place plan that has ticked along for over 4 years, but not enough action, so that's why I was looking more to 7 days, anyway I'll carry on long hand in the meantime , so far I haven't seem much difference in S/R reagrdless of race type, though as you say 2 and 3yo don't look too good and also Fillies and mares races.

I may be able to help out more after Christmas...I still owe Stix a report on scratched horses also.
But the world has gone mad with pre holiday rush.
I feel like a mouse on one of those wheels :eek:

2yo's are far too overbet, the bulk of them come from popular stables with popular jockeys and rumours abound about potential.
While many of them win, few live up to potential and even less are value.

I've got a feeling they wouldn't win too often. ;)

2/3rds of favorites lose, and they do so at paltry prices. Why bother with them?

Because more of them win races than any other price and just a couple of filters break even at tote prices. Obtaining top fluctuation means profit without form. One doesn't necessarily have to stick to paltry prices, it's just a matter of spotting a worthwhile bet.

Hehe, they do next start though ;)

horses seldom wins two in a row.

33.82% win percentage