Previous Two Starts Finish
 

Hi All,

Can someone run a quick database check for the previous two start finishes of all winners for the Syd/Mlb/Brs/Adl metro areas?

i.e. race winner's previous two starts were - 34

I have been tinkering with something over the past few weeks with some moderate success and would like to get a bit of perspective to it...


Cheers,
Luckyboy

Not going to run through the stats(Leave that to someone who has the time), but would say restrict your age and last two starts to finishes better than 5th and you have a sound start...

Stix,

That is pretty much where I am coming from, but I wanted to see some stats to check is there was some factual proof to support my initial theory.

Thanks for the reply.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

Last 3 starts adding up to 9 or less is and old tried and true formula [Spell or 0=10]. 4 and 5 yr. olds are good as they [mostly] haven't been flogged to death. Their SR often drops off after 5yr. due to niggling injuries etc., just like any older athlete thats been at it for awhile.

crash,

Yes, I have heard of that method too...

What I have been tinkering with involves the last two starts along with some other filters, but what I beleive I have found is the 'value edge'.

Some stats would hopefully provide a bit of theoretical comfort...


Cheers,
Luckyboy

that method is not that good i would stay away from that

Unlike Crash, I wouldn't go near 5 year olds (and older horses), im my experience they are harder to catch when up and fit..... 3 and 4 yearolds in form will give you a solid base, think outside of the square (not the obvious system rules) on a few other filters and you will have a winning system..... it worked for me.

stix,

Thanks for that.

I have a pretty successful method that I have been using for about four years now, but over the recent months I have been thinking 'outside the square' and possibly stumbled onto something.

But before I launch into it I had one piece of missing information - 2nd last start finish position...

It's a stat that just have not kept a record of. Dammit...


Cheers,
Luckyboy

My system is not so worried about the last start but more about the 2nd and 3rd last starts......I use 1st to 4th (not margins - although you could, but I don't) for 2nd last start......

So:
348 = yes
022 = yes
551 = no
407 = no
3X7 = yes

Hope that helps..... see if I can manufacture some time tonight to dig up some stats...

Glad to hear you have something that works. I had Western Coup and Minroy today (I know...I know....not that it matters as I never posted them :o)

Good luck...

stix,

Your insights are much appreciated. I like the notion of ignoring the last start. It's outside of the square as you would say and definitely out of the media hype!

Thanks again.


Cheers,
Luckyboy