How would you bet these
 

Results for yesterday

2.80 1.30
5.30 2.oo
.......7.60
.......1.80
.......2.20
6.50 2.40
4.40 2.00
L
.......1.50
4.40 1.80
L

Just win just place or 1w 3p
It's a system ive been working on that centres around horses having 3rd or 4th start from a spell.

Todays picks are

Seymour
r6-1
r7-9

Bunbury
r6-8
r7-2

You will always make more from win only

thats rights but heaps more risk

That doesn't make sense. making more money = more risk[?] Lower strike rate for the win only sure, but in the end the odds are in favour of the win bet [regarding profit], not the place bet. Profit is the name of the game, not strike rate.

Mmm well that's the forum curse.


Absolutely right!

Crazyjord, get about 500 more selections under your belt and you'll be able to answer the question yourself ;)

Yeh i can see where your coming from,i was thinking more along the lines of more places = more profit,but i suppose if you can get enough constant winners then your a lot better off.



lol yeh i was wondering if that would happen:)


Ok my system has come up with 15 selections over 5 meetings tomorrow,do you think thats to many for 1 system in a day ?
I suppose if your selections are coming in you can say it's not many but,the more you have the greater your odds of losing or winning,what do you think?

Crazy, I don't think the number of selections is relevant. I've about 70-80 selections on a good Saturday, and most other days have 30-40 selections. I would suggest though that you have some idea of the value of each selection and don't plonk on every one. As an example, of todays 30 odd possible lays, I could only get the price I wanted on 8.

What's important is your edge. No edge no bet ;)

PS: Oh and making a profit too ;)

I agree, edge is everything but most importantly as overall edge, not edge per bet. If a punter's account 'in' column has less in it than the 'out' column at the end of the month/year, perceived edge per bet is out of whack. Simple maths says if overall edge cannot be improved, reducing bets would reduce loss and increasing them would exacerbate loss.

Thanks for the advice.
I haven't had a bet for about a year now,had enough of just looking at the form guide for 30 min and picking a few horses out,got lots of big wins but probably twice as many losers,so now im just trying to get a few systems together and a couple of them are showing good profit,although iv'e only been testing them for about a month with tab prices,so i imagine if i used betfair or best tote the profits would be even greater.
(i know a month isn't a very good guide but with work i just havent had the time till lately)

Here's today's picks using the same system as yesterday,hopefully the curse has gone.:)

MR
r3-5
r5-1
r7-6

PR
r4-9
r6-1

BR
r8-3

SR
r4-4
r5-13
r6-3

CR
r7-3
r8-10

I know of a Top Class Professional who used to post on this forum who bet on average 80 bets per week for a yearly 10 % profit on his turnover.

As for me I prefer to be more selective.

Cheers.
darky.