Follow the money
 

A little system that I have followed on and off over the years. Watch for horses backed more heavily for a win than a place or vice versa. For example: 5/7; 6/3 at the TAB and back for 3 starts until they at least place. Do not back if they placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd when qualifying. Can pick up some good divvies.

For instance, yesterday at Te Rapa (NZ) there was a qualifier in race 2 called Frivolous who paid $26.30 and $6.40 on the NZ TAB. The reason I liked it was it was third up after running 4th first up and fading out at 250m mark next start right handed, the money was on at 5/7. Latest start, racing left handed and with improvement of last run won at huge odds.

Today at Westland, I liked Diamond Jules in race 4. Faded over 1200m (4.1L) after 2 previous wins. Money was on at 7/10. Field weaker this time and won $6.40 and $3.00

With some filters in place, this could be fine tuned.

Just my thoughts anyway.

I am sure its just late and Im tired but I couldn't work out your examples.

I assume 5/7; 6/3 you are talking odds ?

So you wait till you find a horse who gets a plunge and then it it fails in the race you follow its next 3 starts backing it for a place ?

Good Luck.

In New Zealand 5/7 would mean it started fifth favourite for the win and seventh favourite for the place in terms of its tab odds. I think they use this method because there are no on course bookies over there.

What Mr CosMos is suggesting is that in the normal scheme of things many horses would start at a similar odds ranking such as 1/1 or5/5, and that if there is a significant difference of say 2 or 3 rankings such as 2/5 or 4/2 it may suggest the horse has been more heavily favoured one way or another . I hope im on the right track CosMos if not could you please explain further.

Must be my kiwi accent LOL. Yes, you are both right in that I look for a horse that has been plunged, particularly when the favouritism is under double figures. It takes more money to change the odds the better the favouritism.

The 5/7 example of Frivolous:
ELLS (R) 28Dec08 225 dys 1st up 4 of 9 Rating 70 $15K 1200m G2 Wrkd rnd to ld,hdd 300,btld well in A Calder [R66] 56.5 (8) 4/5 $6.40 1 Josun 1:10.55 1.4L

AVON (R) 17Jan09 20 dys 2nd up 11 of 16 Rating 70 $15K 1400m G3 5th btwn runrs,wknd 250m T Sasada [R66] 56.5 (8) 5/7 $11.70 1 Triple aa 1:23.97 5.7L

At Ellerslie first up, ran 4th (1.4L), battled well. Next start at Avondale when 5/7, weakened last 250m. Both these races were on right handed tracks. In 4 starts of it's career, Frivolous had won his only race left handed.

Starting at Te Rapa (left handed) and with improvement from previous 2 runs, wins at huge odds.

There are sometimes a number of horses that fit the bill so some filtering is required. Frivolous was a great example.

I think following a horse for no more than 3 starts from it's non-placed effort when plunged should hopefully pick up a dividend. Some big win dividends can be had.

By the way, I tipped out this horse on another forum.

Cheers, Rich

Thanks for the explanation.

Good Luck.

Futher to this idea, I don't have any stats, but I've noticed when there is a big go on a horse at any odds band, although it may not win or even place, almost always it runs a very forward race, and and looks some hope over the concluding stages.

I was watching the price movements on horses I'd layed last night in the UK.
They were all solid crunchers and although some of them didn't place, they all were much lower odds at some late stage in the race.

Could be an idea to give it a trial for in running trading, but set a stop loss to cover the unexpected.

cheers for the info i always follow big bets