Mechanical Systems
 

An interesting comment on another thread whether a system can be profitable with mechanical rules only. After reading some forums getting a basic understanding of some statistics I have been manually testing the below theory with small POT on level stakes.

The rules are:
100 or 99 raters Unitab only (approx. 37% winners)
First 3 in prepost only after scratchings (racingnpost)
Max 2 horses per race.

Level stakes.

Gives a punter a quite few bets with steady stream of winners. As I've been doing this for a few weeks manually there isn't alot of data to confirm but it is showing positve POT at the moment after approx 300 bets. I've been testing everyday for interest.

Cheers

I would like someone with a database to test this, spounds interesting i don't think Racecenses has the unitab ratings in them.

Is the racingpost online or only paper?

Sorry Shaun,

should have read racingnsports & online..

That 37% strike rate is that all selections, i was having a look at todays and in some races there is just 1 selection and in some there are 3 so the max is 2 selections or no race correct.

I was using the ************** pre post prices i guess most pre post prices are the same.

37% is quoted in another thread, and as I read is based on all 100/99 raters. You will find a lot of races with more than 2 horses but the most you will get is 3 as the prepost rule will come into play and yes if more than 2 no bet.

Hope that clears things up.

You could in fact have more than 3 as the form i used in a couple of races had 5 in the first 3 pre post, but saying that you would also need a lot of 100/99 in that race.


This all means nothing realy as if you can't get it to 2 selections no bet, this is a golden rule i think because a lot of the selections were favs but a few were not, this also produced a $15 winner at sandown.

"You could in fact have more than 3 as the form i used in a couple of races had 5 in the first 3 pre post, but saying that you would also need a lot of 100/99 in that race."

Yes I agree and I actually include the first three plus any equals.


Today's results: Unitab prices.

38 Bets
13 Winners
34% SR
14.70 Profit - 1 unit
39% POT

There was a $15 winner. Hopefully there is something in this. If not at least you can have a fun day at the races and have a few winners..

Yes, I give the thumbs up on this one. I have been advocating for along time to START at the top Rater, (I guess this could extended to the second top rater i.e.99)

And THEN apply your filters, I think this has merit!

Goldcoast,

I have checked yesterday's results using the Telegraph pre-post market, and I also deleted races that had 7 or less starters because I'm also interested in Place betting.

There were 13 winners from 33 selections for a return of $54.30 using Unitab divvies. Without the $15.30 winner the method would have shown a POT of 21.8%.

With Place betting there were 25 placegetters for a return of $43.20 which is a 75% strike rate and a POT of 30.9%.

If anyone's interested I'll hopefully be able to list today's selections before midday.

I fear the $15 winner will be more the exception than the rule given that was a compressed market in UniTAB ratings terms (5 points covering 10 of the 11 horse field). :(