Factors that increase POT
 

Hi everyone, a question I'd like to put out to the knowledgeable members of this great forum is, what are the factors that improve POT by themselves.

Ie. Starting with betting on every horse in every race:
Produces around 18% LOT.

Now, what individual factors by themselves improve on this and by how much?

Cheers

Hey possie,

Short answer - back the right horses.

Long answer - finding the right horses is the key. Read the posts on this forum (& others) and keep asking questions - remember, there's no such thing as a stupid question, only stupid answers!!!

Seriously, with all due respect, not that question. If you are in any way familiar with horse racing you would know why. If you're not I DO suggest you peruse the many (incredibly many) posts on this forum that do give answers to the varying statistical parameters required to arrive at a winning combination. There are as many hypotheses as there are punters.

Winning isn't easy or the Forum wouldn't be here; the answers already known, horse racing dead, the internet would grind to a halt.....
Sorry if I was a bit flippant, the beer is starting to kick in....


Rgrds,
Den..... Keep reading.....

OK, this is advice from one whos STILL trying, but I've made the mistakes, so at least i can steer you clear of many of them.

First 18% is probably a bit rich, nearer 15%

Now that can be reduced to about 106-110%, simply by always betting bets tote/SP, or if youre backing shorties most of the time bet at top fluc.

Ok so now youve improved your figure by about 10% just by betting at the right place.

Next step (so they tell me is to back at Betfair)which apparently means that the book is reduced to about 105%.

Ok, so now apply various filters that reduce the number of bets BUT increases the POT.

At the moment I enjoy around 4% POT but that is betting for the place.

OK so WHAT filters?

I'll start with my 3 favourites and see if anyone can add:

At least rated 97 (unitab) (this cuts out a lot of donkeys)
METRO run last start
No bet 3kg claimers/amatuers/ladies/jumps/2yo/races for Fillies and/or Mares , only, and any horse more than 7 yo and/or carrying more than 60kg's.

C'mon you lot add to that!

OK
Maybe the question should be, factors that reduce loss on turn over.

Try this very high strike rate method.

.Target races with 8-11 runners only.
This minimises our run of outs.

.Target the top 4 in the live Betfair market.
These win 75% of all races.

.Now delete just 1 of the 4 horses to leave us with 3 horses , using your favorite method.

.If the horses we delete win 3 races in a row , stop betting for the day , its not going to be our day & may continue doing this all day.

.Bet 3 +1 + 1
3 units on the shorter price of the 3 selections.

.Fav must be 1.80+ otherwise , no bet race.

.The 3 selections must have a book value of 55% or less if not , no bet race.
This percentage book value, is worked out for you by BetTraderPro program.

If you delete the correct one each time, you should make a profit.

Use BetTraderPro (Free) so as to make bets under the Betfair min & to make bet placement easy & quick.
This program allows you to make .01 bets if required.

Cheers.

Hello Possie,

lm still looking for the best way to invest per race but you need to start with a selection process l use ratings & then put in some filters like.

• track conditions
• barriers
• jockeys (to a point)
• distance (up or down & have they been compeditive at todays distance)
• fitness patterns (days between runs)
• track
• MOVEMENT BETWEN CLASSES $$$$$$$
• and look for the CLASS horses dropping back in CLASS $$$$$$$$

these are a few things & we must be aware that you cannot back winners all day but you can win if you wait for the right races that have the right horses in it with the right conditions. Over the years most of the people l have spoken to seem to get frustrated that they cant make a profit & l have been one of them but if you read articles & take in what is said on great forums like this one it can happen if you beleave in yourself & dont doubt yourself & all the knockers that will come along as they will hate to see you succeed.
If you have the passion for it & are prepared to give up some time from other activities (that can be the downfall for most people they want it but wont give up other things to pursue the punt)

Good luck & keep asking questions & it can happen.

scottsbluff

OK B. can you explain how to do this in a simple way?
(I watched the demo, more confused than before!)
Thanks

Bhagwan,
The idea sounds good, how about we delete the lowest Qtab rating from the top 4

Thanks guys, some good advice there.

What I'm trying to get at though is what individual factor will improve a selection method.

I read somewhere on this forum that betting only on races with 8-12 runners will improve any system's POT, correct? Maybe the guys with the databases could help.

This is the type of thing I'm looking for.

Cheers

Yes Possie, I was also trying to keep it simple, as soon as you get into subjective/objective ananlysis, the method itself seems to disappear. What you are asking is: I HAVE the method, what single factor will improve POT? yes? and in answer to that I gave my top 3 suggestions, and invited others to add theirs, (not asking for alternative plans etc etc)

So collectivly lets see what we can up with?

Hi Iomaca,
Just download the program from RacingTraders & use it , simple .

Just play around with it, you will be able to work it out from there, read the help menu as required.

Make sure you have an existing Betfair account with money in it ,otherwise nothing will work.