A couple of ??
 

Any selection system will have a expected run of outs in direct porportion to the win S/R.
Now, how do I work out the expected number of outs from a system that produces a S/R of say 45%, 70%, 75% and 80%.

If someone will tell me how its done, I can do it for meself. Then I can bet the max % of my bank "safely"

Also, when you talk about the "fav" I assume the "fav" is the fav at the start of the race, not the fav I see in the form guide from the newspaper.
How long before the race starts can we confidently pick the "fav"?

It might be an idea for the mods to get together and write up a sticky for all us newbies, call it "faqs for newbies". Just a thought ;-)

Thanks,
Mike

I stole this Explanation from somewhere on the web.

Calculating Expected Losing Sequences
The formula for calculating expected losing sequences is as follows:


1 divided by (Losing Strike Rate divided by 100) to the power of 'number of run of outs'.


Important note: The Losing Strike Rate is 100 minus the Win Strike Rate.


Here is an example for a system with a winning Strike Rate of 22% to see how often you should experience a sequence of, say, 14 losers in a row:


=1/(78/100)^14
=1/.78^14
=99.35
=99 (rounded)


The "conclusion" is therefore that every 99 bets you may expect to see 14 losers in a row.


Heres more stuff

A mathematician has done some work on these losing runs, based on the average % of winners usually selected.

Note: these are not set in concrete but are a reasonable guide as to what you may expect to happen from time to time.

"Usual" percentage of winners
"Average" Possible Losing Run
"Worst" Possible losing Run

50% (unlikely)
4 to 5
12 to 14

40% (still unlikely)
6 to 7
18 to 20

33% (favourites?)
9 to 12
26 to 37

25% (average - good)
16 to 18
48 to 55

20% (average) 25 to 28
75

15% (oh dear) 40 110 to 120

Obviously, you will hit these average and worst case scenario losing runs now and again. However you select your winners, work out your average hit rate and change your staking plan according to what you may expect to happen in order to limit the damage.

If you hit an average of 20% winners, and your level stake bet is $10, you will need a bank of at least $750 to outlast any worst case scenario losing streak, or, as we call them, "Armageddon".

Thanks Moeee, but I can't work out that formula, neither can my daughter who is in the advanced maths in year 10, ( so I don't feel too bad. lol)
Is there an easier way?

Mike

Another way of doing it is to download the trial version of The Staking Machine (google those words to find the program). In it yo ucan create random data, simply enter your strike rate, and generate up to 4000 results at a time. It can also then tell you stats like longest run of outs and longest winning streak, quite a handy tool that I like to use for creating large samples of data to play round with.

Hope this may be of some use to you.

Maybe this helps, (sorry it doesn't format well, but you get the idea),
like 5% SR expect 135 runs of outs.
Strike Rate (%) Max. Losing Run
5 135
10 66
15 43
20 31
25 24
30 19
35 16
40 14
45 12
50 10
55 9
60 8
65 7
70 6
75 5
80 4
85 4
90 3
95 2
Cheers

I've know a website that has a rather handy table with expected losing run statistics. For each strike-rate it gives you 4 different expected losings runs - one that has 75% chance of occuring (i.e very likely to have this number of outs), 50% chance (i.e 50:50), 25% and 1%.

I'ts really very handy. For example one of my systems has a 40% strike rate:

Strike Rate..........75%............50%............25%............1%

40

10

12

14

20

So from that I can see that I am a 75% chance of having a run of 10 losers. It's a 50:50 shot of having 12 losers. It's still 25% chance of having 14 losers and 1% that I could hit 20 losers in a row.

I dont think posting links is allowed on this forum so if you like you can tell me your strike rate(s) and I will post the relevant stats. Or I could email you the link if you'd prefer.

Do a search for Punting simulation program.

Thanks guys, thats what I wanted.

goty0405 my email is mjm367@gmail.com I'd appreciate the link.

cheers,
Mike

Thank you goty0405, I have the link and will use it soon.
ta,
Mike

Hi Goty,
We can name the site that you are using so a google search can be done.

The rules of this site say posting an active direct link is against the rules
e.g. Full web site addresses whereby one just click onto the web address for access, is a no-no.

But name is OK


Cheers.