Maybe an alternative to "openers"
 

Upon reading the thread about the laying of "openers", with the various rules etc, it got me thinking. As I might have mentioned with my sectional time blackbookers, I back them providing they have started within 21 days AND are NOT going up in weight 3kgs or more.

So this made me think regarding the weight bit. I just looked at the 24 races from yesterday from sydney, melbourne and brisbane, and there was only 2 winners who went up 3kgs or more (both exactly 3kgs). One of them was having its first start in 6 months (Real Strike). I never buy a newspaper, do all my horsie stuff on the net, but just how many horses would be going up 3kgs or more on the above program..??

From the 24 races there was only 4 that had not raced within the 21 days. Which is 83%, and I believe thats pretty close to the mark, 80% I think.

There was also 9 of these 24 winners that had won their last start and if you toss in the ones that were beaten by say up to around 1 length, that brings it up to 15.

Not sure where I am heading with this, might keep looking more over the next few weeks, but the weight bit got me thinking. Does anyone know how many horses run around yesterday (3 meetings), that went up 3kgs or more..?

Paul

well paully my boy maybe you need glasses

read my posts and you will be a winner just like me

For interest sake, I just went through todays (Sunday) Cranbourne and Gosford meetings. 17 races, and 22 horses going up in weight 3kgs or more. 1 winner amongst them at around the $5 mark.

Interesting,

Paul

Just make sure your taking the 3 kg rise in weight from the "Limit weight" and include Apptcs allowances.
In my opinion 3 KG is the MAX weight rise any horse can deal with without affecting their performance.

Cheers.
darky

Trying to figure this out. The limit in the previous race is 51. The horse was carrying 51. The limit this race is 53 and the horse is carrying 53. The weight rise is zero.

Is that right?

Not sure about all that. I once bought a book written by a well known author on this subject. I wont say his name as I am not sure of the spelling, but I have since sold the book on ebay. Think his first name was Paul also.

It went into rise in weights over the limit etc. For my exercises I have just been looking at the actual weight increase (exc appr claims). I'll probably get howled down for this comment, but thats how I see it.

On saturday I had 8 blackbookers running around from my sectionals. 2 of them were going up in weight 3.5kgs. Lakonian (started around even money fav) and Mine In Time (also was early fav). I excluded them from my bets and they were both beaten. I've saved heaps of losing bets doing such.

(from my other 6 bets there were 2 winners, Prince Braeman $4.60 and Ortensia $2.25, so a small profit on the day).

Paul

A general well known rule of thumb in basic handicapping is to ignore horses going up more than 2kg. You'll miss a few but not many.

What you are saying would make sense only if all horses were on the same limit wgt. in their previous race, obviously that is seldom true.
The actual wgt. rise is what's important.

You could be right, however individual horses handle wgt. differently. A big 600Kg gelding certainly should handle weight better than a 500Kg slightly built mare, don't you think so?

Hmmmm, maybe we should look at the underlying principles of weights and handicapping and and minimum weights to see what the starting point should be when looking at a starting point to calculate a rise in weight.



http://www.rsb.net.au/publishing/RBH/Policy.htm



Seems that all things being equal, you can't put on more than 3.5 Kg and remain in the same class. If you go up a class, you aren't going to go up 3.5 kilos even if you won last start. You have to drop a class.

Lets use Lakonian as an example, and see what the handicappers are basing their weights on:

Lakonian went up 3kg on a straight weight rise, and 2.5kg from the minimum. I'm going to use the top weight as a guide to field strength.

The top weight in the 16 May race which was won by Shocking (Lakonian 2nd) was Tindal. It was a 3YO open class. So was last saturday's race, but the field strength was way down.

Pinatas was the top weight last saturday and all it had done was win a 30k mid weeker at Sandown. Tindal has won a $151K Listed race at Flem last Oct. Tindal would have way higher class ratings and that implies that the May 16 race had a stronger field strength.

So, the class of the race is the same, but the field strength is down in last Saturday's race by evidence of the records top weights in each race.

Lakonian goes up 3.0kg on account of Tindal being replaced by a lower rated top weight in Pinatas, but stays in the same class . How unfair!!! Basically the handicappers hit Lakonian just about as hard as they could

Re performance: Lakonian gained almost 3 lengths on the leaders in the last 200, was 3 wide for most of the race and was left flat footed around the turn before taking trhem on. Basically a crumby race, all round. Had it been with the leaders and fell back a bit, I could see weight being a factor. Lakonian has won with 57. Who knows.

The winner, Rock Home Late, also went up 3 kg in almost identical circumstances. Go figure.

Was the other horse Rock Home Late?