Betting on the right races
 

Just an interesting observation of my own betting. In the past my betting was restricted to blacktype races only with moderate success.

In more recent times, not through specific design, I've noticed that few if any bets are on the better races. Generally nothing is blacktype, a lot of midweek. And with a higher level of success.

Surprises me a bit as I've always considered betting on the better quality races is the best way to go.

I don't mind saying that I'm backing horses at 10/1 or more the place. A gut feeling is that the better races are more likely to have a genuine favourite. The lesser class racing more likely to have a favourite that is under the odds thus giving you better odds should you be betting against the fave.

Upshot I think - is that punters could well benefit from analysing not just the horses they are selecting/backing but analysing the results in the various classes of racing to see what further refinement brings.

Just my thinking. Any other thoughts welcome :-)

Steve, my main income for the last 6 years is from punting, (still holding a part time job 2 days, to please the better half), if someone could tell me which races are better propositions than others, I would pay them in gold!

The simple fact is, if horses have records, you can rate them, the more records the more accurate your ratings.
That is up to an extent, I would never go beyond the past 3 years usually only two. Horses age and change.

What type of race? I actually ignore all the "blacktype" races.
In country cups look for previous winners and most importantly LOCAL horses.

In my experience the day of week and the venue (where the race is held) is important!
Don't ask me why.
I have an extensive database, write my own software and still can't figure out why I can never win at certain venues like Perth or Rosehill and some others, or on Tuesdays or Fridays!

In other words I think the method you are using determines which classes of races suit you method.

Good luck

Horses in form and racing in pretty much the same class of races I find are the best betting propositions. another GOLD rule is variation in prize money.

Fridays are a nightmare for me if I don't follow my own rules and have a bet for the sake of it.

Try stix_propun at aanet dot com dot au now mate.

When I was using Warren Blocks ratings the suggestion there was.

Add the top 5 ratings numbers together and divide X 5
Best races to concentrate on were those at 90 or less

Cheers.
darky

The less information available, the more likelihood that the winner will be at Over The Odds.

In your Top Quality races, the Form is well known to all Punters, and The Punters that bet on those races know a aaaa of a lot more than you and me.

Its strange that we tend to pick a higher proportion of winners in Quality Events than we do in Maiden Races, but the Winning Prices in Maidens are higher.
I don't know if thats true.
I just made it up.

But if someone has ever run a database and added up all Prices of winners grouped into better Races and Poorer Races I would think the poorer Races would throw higher average Prices.

To me its like when all the tumblers fall. And it can be anywhere, anytime, any class.

My easiest venues are Rosehill, Money Valley, Doomben. I have my own secret recipe for them that seem to work ok. I'm sure that other punters have secret recipies that work for other venues, but come a cropper for my favorites.

But the most powerful is when my experience, instinct, and numbers point to a particular race and a particular horse. And my close associates may sometimes say: "You are kidding?"....and after it wins, they say.."Oh yeah, I can see it now, I think."

Its not the race, the class, the distance, the venue...although sometimes it is. Mainly its just a confluence of factors that say out of all these races at this meeting there is one or two races I can pick.

But thats just my experience and bag of tricks. And if I'm consistent, they come up at a good percentage. I can't teach it because its just ok for me, but a bit messy. And anyway, I don't want to just give hard earned knowledge away. And if I did , the very next day I'm sure I would have a run of outs. LOL