OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

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- Horse Racing (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/forumdisplay.php?f=5)

- - tailed off (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=19019)

noticed several horses beaten long distances and then winning.
Jungle Ruler recently beaten 47 lengths and then winning.
Bold Giggle in Adelaide 3 lasts by 18 lengths and then winning
Sand Sweeper beaten 70.3 lenghts in a steeple and then winning.

Anyone out there betting on form.

I don't really mind the horse being tailed off ,, means the horse hasnt been bashed to the line for nothing and depending on what stage of the prep the horse is at , it sometimes means the horse hasnt peaked.

I like to look at why the horse has tailed off ,,
wide run ? tempo against ? track conditions ? interferrence ? or fitness ?

then gauge it from there ,,,the plus side to all this means the horse is usually way overs in the market.

I don't think Sand Sweeper should go into that category. Although his win suprised the market (61.00) his form from his last campaign provided a good pointer to his win yesterday. Examining his record shows good first ability I think at least 5 good first up runs..His first up run last campaign I think was 2nd in a Group race over 1400 to Time Matters at Caulfield - not bad form for yesterday's race.

I guess he is an unusual horse in that he is very versatile - a good flat performer who is also a good jumper - apparently a very good jumper. So that probably caught the market unawares in a very open race with 2 of the well fancied runners (Stickpin & Ma Shang) significantly under their true odds.

Also his jockey M.Rodd a very good front running jockey.

Of course hindsight is a wonderful thing. I didn't back Sand Sweeper but Tictacs. My main bet was to lay Stickpin.

sand sweeper has been placed or won in listed/group company 11 times
and in his last 5 starts had been placed twice in listed company and a placing in the yarra valley cup. I knew all that as I worked it on Friday night but i take a lot of convincing dont I?

Also as a front runner he stayed out of trouble - wheras a few behind got caught up in the charge.

I predict though the rest of his campaign will follow the previous - maybe a couple of good runs in strong handicaps without winning. He will be up around the 60 kg mark now on the flat.

Quote:

Originally Posted by topsy99

topsy99..as a matter of interest..anything of substance in the stewards rpt..for these runs..

sand sweeper was from a steeple so probably weight and distance problem.
jungle ruler appears to have a history of erratic finishes.
bold giggle i think ran last two in a row and tenth twice in the past four before winning at 22/1.

The beaten margins seem to be getting larger lately e.g. za magic yesterday was beaten by 20 lenghts last start albeit in the qld oaks which was too far. I did happen to back that one despite an element of trepidation.
I mean I am not against a leap of faith but not sure how high I can jump.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reckless

To add to the above.....Trainers often school their horses over jumps to sharpen them up.....it's not that unusual....and with some of the factors mentioned here I "had" it in my quaddie..... and then left it out...why? exactly!!....that's what I asked myself yesterday arvo...why?!!