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-   -   Something to work with (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=19210)

thorns 20th August 2009 09:19 AM

Something to work with
 
Yesterday I played with a very simple system that showed incredible results.
Rules:

Must be TAb number 1,2, or 3
Selection is the first one paying between $3-$10 (Working from 1-3)

Results
Out: 34
In: 71.9

Obvioulsy this was just a lucky day, so i went over a this weeks data last night, this isnt going to be completly accurate due to not beig able to watch the live odds.

Results:
Out 112
In 135


So who has some ideas for some filters to try and improve on this system? I would think that it would show a loss overall, but perhaps some basic filters could see this work?

Thoughts?

Mancunian 20th August 2009 11:29 AM

G'day thorns,
Suggest eliminate non-handicap events such as WFA and Set weights races as numbers 1 2 and 3 may only be by alphabetical order
e.g see Sale races today
There again you are still being guided by pre-post price -
anyway maybe worth a thought.
cheers ..Mancunian

moeee 20th August 2009 12:01 PM

Method to the madness
 
Simple rules should be simple to understand the reason why they produce the results they do.

It is well documented that animals starting in that price range are the most favourable betting targets.
The return would be around the Minus 8% or so mark.

Animals at smaller saddlecloth numbers are there usually because they are of better ability.

So if you eliminate races where order is decided by alphabet or sex or age, then I would think your losses will be reduced.


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