Comparing Staking Methods
 

Using a fairly selective selection process due to only considering races with one contender, the following results were obtained, since the start of 2009. All other races with more than one contender were ignored, thus leading to a small sample quantity.

Selections 39
Wins 13
Win Strike Rate 33.3%

Range of winners were $1.65 to $7.00

Longest winning sequence was 2 (twice) and longest losing sequence was 5 (twice).

I put these selections through Four Staking Methods

1. Flat Stakes
2. 2% of Bank non-reducing
3. Bet to Collect $50
4. 6 Point Plan

The results were quite interesting

Flat Stakes

Betting $10 per selection
Outlay $390
Collect $527
Profit $137
POT% 35.1%

Bet 2% of Bank Non-Reducing

Initial Bank $500 hence initial bet $10
Outlay $484
Collect $630.10
Profit $146.10
POT% 30.2%
Current bet $13

Bet to Collect $50

Using selection's opening price to calculate (rounded up) the bet amount
Outlay $593
Collect $850.30
Profit $257.30
POT% 47.4%
Minimum bet $8
Maximum bet $34

6 Point Plan

Using a Target of $60 to get initial bet of $10
An additional Target was added everytime the divisor was <=2
Outlay $744
Collect $1144.80
Profit $400.80
POT% 53.9%
Minimum bet $10
Maximum bet $39
Current Divisor 4.8
Next bet $23

Based on these limited results the 6 Point Plan is the best of the four staking methods. I currently do not use this staking method but after this analysis I might have to consider it.

Try,

I'm not an aaaaaa on staking plans, but with a strike rate of 33.3%, a level stakes POT of 35.1% and the longest losing sequence of only 5 I would assume that within reason the more argressive the stakings plan then the higher the profit.

However, its a double-edged sword because a longer losing sequence could do irreperable damage whilst a less aggressive stakings plan might withstand it.

I believe there are forumites here who are aware of a formula to calculate the longest losing sequence.

Im unsure how to calculate it myself, but if you download the trial version of the staking machine, you can generate up to 4000 samples using your SR and av divis.

I just ran a test of 4000 with your SR, and a longest loosing run of 21 came up in the frist sample. Most other 4000 run samples were around teh 16-17 mark, and the worst I could get was 23. Thats where a staking plan can run into big trouble.

The theoretical run of outs for a 33% SR is approx 23

Maybe bet to collect would be the safest option.

With such a small sample it does not give us the bigger picture.

I feel a min sample of 150 results is a start.

With those results being in profit at level stakes , any staking plan will work.

Here's another staking plan.

1.0 , 1.50 ,2.0, ,2.5 ,3.0 ,3.5 ,4.0 ect
Go back 2 places after each win 4.40 & less.
Go back 3 places if 4.50+
e.g.
1.0 ,1.5 ,2.0 ,2.50 ,3.0 ,3.5 ,4.0 ,4.5w ,3.5w ,2.50 ,3.0w , 2.0w 1.0

Cheers.