Caulfield Guineas barrier draw
 

CAULFIELD GUINEAS (1600m)
1 DENMAN - Peter Snowden / Kerrin McEvoy 7 55.5
2 MANHATTAN RAIN - Gai Waterhouse / Blake Shinn 6 55.5
3 TICKETS - Peter G Moody / Steven Arnold 8 55.5
4 CARRARA - Tony Vasil / Corey Brown 2 55.5
5 STARSPANGLEDBANNER - Leon Corstens / Danny Nikolic 1 55.5
6 TRUSTING - John P Thompson / Craig Williams 10 55.5
7 SO YOU THINK - Bart Cummings / Michael Rodd 11 55.5
8 EXTRA ZERO - David Hayes / Nash Rawiller 5 55.5
9 NICASTRO - Jarrod McLean / Dwayne Dunn 9 55.5
10 RIVER'S LANE - David Balfour / Nicholas Hall 3 55.5
11 ECLAIR FASTPASS - Robbie Laing / Craig Newitt 4 55.5

I seriously cant wait for this race, best field for a number of years for sure. I really like trusting here, barrier wont bother it will go back anyway. Cant say the same for denman drawing 7, big concern with kerrin mcavoid riding it.

7 of last 8 winners have stepped up 200m in distance - only whobegotyou raced same distance prior start
6 of last 8 winners have placed at prior start - 3 winners,2 seconds,1 3rd
5 of 8 retainer the same jockey from last start
3 of 8 that have changed the jockey have paid $20 (in Top Swing), $56 (Econsol), $31 (Wonderfule world)
3 of 8 had run at track last start
6 have carried 55.5, other 2 carried 54
All have > 45% Place Strike rate - 5 >75% 3 45-74%
5 of 8 have been in top 3 in betting
4 have last start 13-15 days, 3 20-21 days, 1 28 days
7 of 8 winners have carried same weight or less than last start. 1 winner carried 1.5kg greater than last start (Wonderful World)
7 of 8 are 4th or worse at 400m last start

Criteria 1 - drop Carrara, So You think, Extra Zero, River's Lane
Criteria 2 - drop Starspangledbanner, Eclair Fastpass
Criteria 3/6/10 - remaining horse all met
Criteria 11 - drop Denman, Manhattan Rain, Tickets, Nicastro

Well, only one left standing......Trusting.

So you Trust Stix.....Go Trusting....He met most of the criteria include he is 2nd favourite...

I also recollect that there is something favourable with inside barriers in the Guineas historically. Any stats on that ?. I think when Econsul won all in the first 3 came from barriers 1 to 4. Track was dead that day I think - huge trifecta that time.

This is the statistic -Since 1989, 12 winners have drawn barrier four or under. Barrier four has the best recent record with five wins, the most recent Econsul five years ago. Eclair Fastpass has barrier four on Saturday

I think there's usually a field of 14-16 though. This year it's only 11, so perhaps barriers not as important?

But yes, you're right. One year, all you had to do was box up the inside 4 barriers and you could have got a huge return.

Winning Barriers...open to correction.

4 Skalato
10 Lonhro
7 Helenus
4 In Top Swing
4 Enconsul
12 God's Own
8 Wonderful World
2 Weekend Hussler
12 Whobegotyou

Yeah, Econsul and In Top Swing were the two years that inside barriers really dominated. Naturally, I started looking at the inside barriers AFTER that! :rolleyes:

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