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-   -   Maidens having 2nd start, Database help (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=19465)

jackact 19th October 2009 03:27 PM

Maidens having 2nd start, Database help
 
I seem to be getting enough long shots to make this pay, but would really appreciate help from someone with a Unitab database to check it out longer term:
-All Maidens 1400m and shorter,
-No more than two first starters in the race,
-The selection is the best Unitab rated of those having their second start. If two or more equal ratings, skip the race.

Bhagwan 20th October 2009 04:17 AM

Is that 2nd career start
or
2nd start after a spell?

jackact 20th October 2009 07:02 AM

Yes, Bhagwan, second career start. So on Unitab site, would show either as just one number e.g 5, or 5X if the horse had one start and then a spell.
Sorry I didn't make it clear.
Regards,
Jackact

crash 20th October 2009 10:28 AM

Ratings for a 2nd start horse would be based on what? Their 1st. start, breeding or how much was paid for the horse at sale? All notoriously unreliable rating data, so any rating would have to be a bit of a guess.

Very few maidens win their second start. So long term you would need a very good average win price to come out in front wouldn't you?

jackact 20th October 2009 11:34 AM

Agree, Crash, I do need the occasional long shot. I don't really know on what Unitab (AAP?) base their maiden rates. I assume it is class of maiden, beaten margin.

Bhagwan 23rd October 2009 10:40 AM

Thanks for that Jackact.

It looks promising on past results.

Right!
I know I am changing the original rules here, but here goes.

I'm going to back all maidens that are having their 2nd career start in that distance range & make a fortune.

Stick your own personal filters over it.(Optional)

If more than one , bet the lot.

I'm going to be rich...so be warned.

jackact 23rd October 2009 04:30 PM

Thanks, Bhagwan, I am encouraged by your enthusiasm. Lets know how you are going, say after a month. (If it goes as well as you expect, I guess you will be replying from Tahiti or similar!)
Jackact

crash 23rd October 2009 07:31 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhagwan

I'm going to be rich...so be warned.


Today:

Bathurst
1/3,4 [unp]
3/12 [unp]
4/8 [unp]
Benalla
1/5,7,8,13, [5 win 11.80]
2/8 [unp]
5/1 [unp]
COFFS HARBOUR
3/5,7 [unp]
TOOWOOMBA CUSHION
1/2.3.4.6,8 [6-2nd. rest unp]
2/3,4 [unp]
WYNDHAM
1/7,10 [unp]
2/5,8 [5-unp., 8-2nd]
3/1 [unp]

out=24, in=11.80, loss=12.20

Ill Get There 23rd October 2009 08:08 PM

think hes only having a lend of yas...pullin ya leg lol

notorious for that e is

Bhagwan 24th October 2009 12:07 AM

Failed one day lets chuck it in the bin.
One day means nothing.
Seeing that someone is fishing for a negative (Friday 23rd) , lets plonk in a positive to reflect a little balance.

One of the rules observed was , no bet in races with 4+ first starters.
1400m & less.
Yesterdays results (Thurs 22nd)

Ipswich
1/ 8 9 11 ---$83.70
2/ 11 ----Loss

Hawk
3/ 5 8 13 14 ---$3.30
8/ 10 11 ---L

Ballarat
2/ 6 7 10 ---$10.80
3/ 9 13---L

Geraldton
1/ 4 8 12 ----$28.30
4/ 5 -----L

Out-- $19.00
In ----$126.00
Profit $107.00

Even with that $83.70 winner taken out, it would still have shown a +$23.30 profit.


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