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-   -   Triple Selection Method (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=19565)

Try Try Again 19th November 2009 04:46 PM

Triple Selection Method
 
I'm putting up this selection method because it shows a high win strike rate (40% to 50%), but unfortunately it only breaks even at Best Tote. Someone may be able to tweak it to show a better return.

Use Unitab site.

Selection must be the same first selection by Radio Tab and Tipster. It must also be the 100 point rater on Unitab.

That's all. It has been showing consistent results since 1st September 2009.

I have not considered class of race, distance, number of starters, track conditions or day of race.

Bhagwan 20th November 2009 06:03 AM

One method that will tweek it into profit is the Fibonnacci staking plan.
Seletion has to be 2.60+ to make it work.
1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 = 86

Have 5 banks of 86.00
This allows for 5 lots of 8 outs in a row.

Start again after 8 outs in a row.
Start again if a winner is struck at 2.60+

Only bet the selection is 2.60+ using Betfair.
Wont work using the TAB because of the fluctuating prices.

partypooper 20th November 2009 11:38 PM

TRYTRYAGAIN, I've done a lot or work along those lines reserching over the last few years.

If you only bet when the selection is late mail it tweaks into profit but the bets are few and nearly always overbet. The more you tweak it the better the S/R and the less the POT and most importantly too few bets.

better to start looking along the lines of not many filters to find a small POT but heaps of bets. An added benefit is that you can have heaps of say $50 bets without affecting the Tote,whereas a few very large bets will definitly affect the Divi.

Good luck

PS Another one is that you are nearly always better betting Top Fluc with these shorties if available rather than best tote. (as you know you can only get best tote/SP at Metro meets anyway)

If you do bet all week and prefer best tote make sure you bet with the mob that gives you BEST OF 3 TOTES ALL MEETS 7 DAYS, and then best of 3/SP for Metro Meets.

Try Try Again 21st November 2009 11:38 AM

Thanks for the reply Partypooper.

I've had a closer look at the results and and with a couple of major filters I have turned this from a "break even" to approximately 50% POT.

Obviously, with any filters you are reducing the number of bets with the aim of improving the return. The filters I have implemented have reduced the bets by approx. 80% but has increased both the strike rate and %POT.

My only hope is this trend continues as I have only been following this method since 1st September 2009. Fingers are crossed!

Bhagwan 21st November 2009 12:09 PM

What one has to try & keep in mind is that small final volumn of bets always play tricks with us by flipping the other way when our small sample says that it shouldn't.

partypooper 21st November 2009 02:44 PM

I remember seeing an interview with a flambouyant Bookie called John banks I think it was around the 80's, anyway his quotable quote was that when he goes to the races with 1000 quid he "hopes" to win 100quid , wheras the punters go to the course with 100 quid and expects to win 1000quid.

Massive empires have been built with a house advantage (guaranteed) with only around 2%-3%.

If one can find a method that gives us 'that' guaranteed permanently then, Carribean here we come!

Try Try Again 22nd November 2009 07:22 PM

2 winners and a 2nd from 3 bets yesterday, although both winners were short!
Still managed 40% POT.

Fingers still crossed!

partypooper 23rd November 2009 02:59 AM

G'day "try", can't be bothered looking but just by chance where those selections also Late mail?

Try Try Again 23rd November 2009 11:49 AM

Hi Partypooper,

Only one winner was a Late Mail selection Ascot Race 2 #1 Thorn Dancer ($1.70), neither of the other 2 selections were.

partypooper 23rd November 2009 11:53 PM

G'Day TRY, Thorn dancer was $1.80c (best Tote) and I think $1.90c Top Fluc so there you go POT increased from 40% to at least 80% with 1 single rule!!


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