I was wondering if any party has statistics on last start winners?

Is there a difference between last start winners of say 0-1 lengths, 1-2 lengths, 2-3 lengths and 3 or more lengths?

hi

winners that have won by 4 lengths or more last start have a good record

regards
ubetido

Can't answer your question Lew, but it does touch on some research I did a few years back. The result is, I disregard any contender that was not within 3.5 lenghs of the winner last start, (0 of course means it was the winner)

Also as a matter of interest, the same applies to any contender set to carry more or less than 3.5 kg's than it was set to carry last start. (I ignore app. claims)

These filters, keep me off many unplaced runners!!

0-1=19%
1-2=14%
2-3=12%
3-20=8%

When applied to Favs, made no difference to the av. of 29%

my research shows (of course) that as filters are applied to increase the strike rate, so too does the ave. divi decrease.

I guess what we are looking for is "combination" of specific filters that results in an edge.

just as a matter of co-incidence, this rule kept me off MR 7-1 (into the night) set to carry 4.5kg's more than last run!!!!

Bagman,

So those figures mean than winners in the 0-2 length range are better bets next start?
Is that because horses which won by 3 or more lengths were in weaker grades and are now jumping in class somewhat?

Partyman,

Your 3.5kg rule is a good one, 4kg rises slow horses down, while 4 kg falls means a big jump in class!

Bagwhan would know the technicalities of it , my deduction came from analyising 10,000 winners, the largest % (of winners)fit into that catagory.