Whats the odds?
 

My place plan yesterday, best day EVER, only backing overs 17 bets for 17 hits. The overall S/R (including unders) is 65% what are the odds of 17 hits in a row?

If anyone is kind enough to do the calculation, I would like to know the % figure for 3 outs in a row i.e. how many times in say 1000 bets will I encounter 3 losses in a row with a S/R of 65%? any help appreciated!

Hey Party,
Hope you were using the DIABOLICAL STAKING PLAN.

Re your question I think Bgahwan is your man for that.

Cheers
darky

Level stakes only on that one Darky, but with the benefit of hindsight....GEE!

Bhags, how about it?

This is absolutely impossible! 7 bets today 7 hits, thats 24 consecutive hits!

Did you Hit?
or were you Hit?

Which would then become a Bit.

The theoretical run of outs for 65% SR is 7 in a row.

The percentage chance of Hitting 3 successes in a row within 100 bets, is ....
.65 x .65 x .65 = 27.46%

The percentage chance of 3 outs in a row in 100 bets, is ...
(100-27.46) = 72.54%

Thanks for that Bhags, I understand what youve said but I'm having trouble converting that into eg. on average how many times will I get 3 losses in a row say with 100 bets.

This incredible run of placings worries me in the sense that if I can get 24 in a row then it must also be possible to get 24 LOSERS in a row isnt it? gripes that would definitly wipe me out!

Umm.....

Maybe I've got this all wrong, but wouldn't (100-27.46) = 72.54% be the percentage chance of NOT hitting 3 successes in a row?

Wouldn't the percentage chance of 3 outs in a row be....
.35 x .35 x .35 = 4.29% ?

If it's not then I definately need another cup o' coffee :)

Den

Youve got my head spinning now, the reason I need to know is this , with a staking plan of 1,3,7 revert back to 1 after 3 losses so you accept the 11 unit loss. Yes I realise that all I'm, doing is increasing stakes overall really, but there is a mental consideration as well, eg. say you have a sequence of WLWLWLLWLWLWLWLLW,which shows a level stakes loss on the day, BUT a healthy profit with a 1,3,7, staking (were backing for the place here) So you see I need to know how many times I have to accept the 11 unit loss say in 100 bets?

Have to agree with Dennis G on this one.

If chance of a win is 0.65 then chance of a loss is (1-0.65 = 0.35)

Then chance of 3 losses in a row is 0.35 x 0.35 x 0.35 = 0.0429 = 4.29%

so does that convert to roughly 4 times in every 100 bets I will encounter 3 losses in a row? if so then I have to recover 44 units from the remaining 88 bets to break even yes?