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-   -   System test? (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=20484)

bryz55 8th September 2010 12:48 PM

System test?
 
Hey guys

Anyone with stats wanna test this one?

Rules
.no maidens
.distance 1200m +
.starters 8-14 (inclusive)
.starting price <=$2.50
.barrier 8 or less
.58kg or less
.last start <21
.senior jockey
.distance within 200m last start

All days

Place bet only


Winner winner chicken dinner!

Bhagwan 8th September 2010 09:39 PM

Result
Place
84.62%
+8.5% POT
Very good.

Win
50%
-3% LOT

bryz55 8th September 2010 10:48 PM

Cheers.

That is just a quick one I thought up haha...

How many was the sample? One would imagine a huge amount of turnover? I forgot to mention to delete hurdles and 2yo's.

The only downside would be physically watching each race and sticking to plan...

Winner winner chicken dinner!

darkydog2002 9th September 2010 04:41 PM

Hey Bryzz,
You should get a gander at My BSA one posted for the "experts" on the PA site.
$64 winner today.

bryz55 12th September 2010 01:59 AM

I'm confused
 
Hey darky I would but I got no clue what u are saying?

BSA? PA Site? I'm lost someone enlighten me please?

By the way why is it I ran a six week trial of a new system it showed great potential about 42% s/r over 90 bets over 30% pot...

Then I ran another trial from three months later and it may of well as been the how not to pick a winner system... So frustrating three days of over twelve hours a day going through form guides.

And now I'm back to square one...

Back to the drawing board for me

How many ridgid rules would a solid system have??? I'm all ears about now

Winner winner chicken dinner!

partypooper 12th September 2010 11:25 AM

Welcome to the club Bryz55, we've all done exactly that many times. That is not to say that your method was a dud, but you would need at least (in my opinion) 1000 bets to truly evaluate it. What I try to do is then give it a dry run for at least 150 bets to try and pin it down. Even then you have to realise that there will be inexplicable bad runs, I've operated a place system for over 5 years, it stands at just over 4% POT. If I was to dissect it into 3 month bits there would be a lot of treading water and even losses in some 3 month periods.

That's the nature of the game, "tenacity" I reckon the way to go is decide on a bank for the project and stick to it through thick and thin, i.e. its only had it when the banks bust.

Good luck!

darkydog2002 12th September 2010 03:41 PM

Bryzz,
PA punying ace

Chockablock with BSA

bryz55 13th September 2010 09:02 PM

So the letter r system is that dinkum or a joke? What sort of data backs it up?

Winner winner chicken dinner!

partypooper 14th September 2010 01:31 AM

Na, absolute joke mate BUT, incredibly often performs better than anything else,

I don't go to the track much these days (ill health) but when I do I will often include these daft selections as they do (more than they should) just make an incredible day!

I once had a 500-1 double with a $5 stake, idiot me cos it paid more than 800-1 @ tote odds.

bryz55 14th September 2010 02:57 AM

Ok 25 weeks checking my data (25 copies of TABForm back ordered)

Seln 130
W 40
Ret 149
Av div $3.70
Highest $5.70
POT ~13 %

Based on fri sat sun only... Should I smile?

Winner winner chicken dinner!


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