Lay claiming apprentices.
 

Over the past week if one had layed:

1) Under $3.00 in the pre-post market (I use the Telegraph).
2) Ridden by a claiming apprentice.
3) Omit the major tracks from the five states.

then the results would have been:

11 smiles from 11 selections for a profit of 10.45 units.

I picked four other days at random and checked the results of the above method.

10 smiles from 10 selections for a profit of 9.50 units.

If there's any selections today I will list them here.

Two selections today:

Hamilton
2/4

Townsville
5/1

Michael,

Which tracks are you excluding.

Just as a quick response:

All Claiming Apprententices last 2 months under $5 have a negative expectation of $1.14 (Meaning on average you are laying at odds of $1.03 higher then break even). There were a total of 501 selections for 140 winners. I only included claiming apprentices (ie weight off of 0.5kgs or more). In this time frame you would have either made money or lost depending on the staking method (risked amount vs level stakes).

All Claiming Apprententices last 2 months under $3 have a negative expectation of $1.22 (Meaning on average you are laying at odds of $1.22 higher then break even). There were a total of 119 selections for 53 winners. You would have lost regardless of staking method used.

Of all the courses which had at least 10 results in the range up to $5 only 1 course had a positive expectation (canterbury).

It may be short term spectacular but work out your expectation and you will know if its worthwhile continuing.

Taking the odds higher doesn't help either:

All Claiming Apprententices last 2 months between $3 and $10 have a negative expectation of $1.54 (Meaning on average you are laying at odds of $1.54 higher then break even). There were a total of 1342 selections for 226 winners. You would have lost regardless of staking method used.


Maybe the prepost price makes a difference. We can use unitab 100 rated or top pick as a filter if that helps for comparison:

All Claiming Apprententices last 2 months and rated 100 unitab up to $5 have a negative expectation of $1.06 (Meaning on average you are laying at odds of $1.06 higher then break even). There were a total of 168 selections for 49 winners.

All Claiming Apprententices last 2 months and tipped first and up to $5 have a negative expectation of $1.27 (Meaning on average you are laying at odds of $1.27 higher then break even). There were a total of 290 selections for 90 winners.

Feel free to follow it but the numbers rarely lie.

If you want something else tested just let me know.

Thanks, Wesmip1.

The tracks I excluded are those of the five major states for Wednesday and Saturday racing, and also at Flemington from last Sunday.

When I decided to look at the system I accepted that the better jockeys rode at these meetings so I assumed this would also be true for the better apprentices. I have kept form-guides for Saturdays, and checked the method with both claiming and non-claiming apprentices. They do not have a bad winning record. For example, over the past two Saturdays and last Wednesday, there have been 12 selections for 5 accidents having a TAB liability of $7.90.

However, the opposite was true over the short period I checked with country and provincial tracks, where as listed in the opening post there were 21 selections for no accidents. Of course it might have just been a coincidence, and reality will even it out.

However, I'll continue to see how they go, in spite of today's accident of $5.40 which one can with some wishful thinking put it down to the Forum Curse.

Thanks again.
Michael.

One selection today:

Northam R7 no.1.

Jockey Change means no selection today.

Two selections today

Pt Mac
5/2

Ipswich
1/1

interesting topic
 

I am trying to dissect the information here . Two extreme results .Can you clarify if you are laying at any price given the 3.00 cut off in the paper, or are you laying at BF price less than 3.00.Further the results of 119 bets for 53 accidents seems to good to be true as a betting system!!From a personal point of view, as a professional layer i think Michaelgs system has some merit with price limits.

1annandale1,

I haven't set a limit on the price because my selections are under $3 in the prepost market, and I would not expect them to be too high on Betfair. When testing the method there were 21 selections, the highest from memory, was around $6.

However, Tuesday's accident was $6.40 for a liability of $5.40. Maybe a cutoff price should be set because the prepost market rates them having the best chance of winning the race, and accepting a relatively high price is most likely giving "overs". I keep a record of the prices I obtain so its something I'll look at, assuming the method continues to perform successfully.

As you say, 53 accidents from 119 selections does seem quite high. Maybe wesmip1 might double-check the results.

Today's selections are:

Albury
3/2

Kembla
3/1
4/1
5/6

Toowoomba
1/1
6/1

Good luck.