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-   -   Michaelg (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=20750)

darkydog2002 13th November 2010 02:21 PM

Michaelg
 
The R+S is still firing well.
Nice pickup on G.Coast R 3 @ $31 / outlay $30.
The selections were 1 - 3 - 4 - 6
No.4 I tossed out as being too short.

Cheers
darky

michaelg 13th November 2010 03:07 PM

Darky, its good to know its still performing.

I've just read your post about outsiders. A few years ago I was talking to a guy at the local TAB. He told me he backs each-way the three biggest outsiders. I can't remember if he applied this to every race, and he swore he was in profit. I followed his bets one Sat, and we snared a $115 in Perth - I'll never forget it.

Sydney R5 has just been run, the runner-up was the rank outsider and paid $21.60 to Place. I've occassionaly looked at the method, and these outsiders fill a Place more often than one would expect.

darkydog2002 13th November 2010 03:17 PM

A anamoly I just notice in the GC race 4 was the price of the Tipster selections of H 1 R+S asessed $61 and 6 asessed $26 - Unitab price of 1 was $3.05 and of 6 was $10.
A way of knocking out under the odds and crap selections is my immediate thought but who knows.

Cheers
darky

darkydog2002 13th November 2010 04:08 PM

In the above scenario I would have thrown out
R 5 1 - 4 - 15
R 6 11
R 7 7

Will keep an eye on this.

Cheers
darky

darkydog2002 13th November 2010 04:26 PM

In the last as per my usual modus operandi with R+ S I have 4 - 5 - 8 - 10 - 14 BUT a minimum price of $6.Any lower than this will get thrown out as well.

Cheers
darky

lomaca 13th November 2010 05:37 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
Sydney R5 has just been run, the runner-up was the rank outsider and paid $21.60 to Place. I've occassionaly looked at the method, and these outsiders fill a Place more often than one would expect.
Michael, the horse in Sydney R 5 was the top selection in Donsct. base ratings and in my opinion that's the only one that shows promise for the place, (the second selection may be OK for eaw)

I haven't done a thorough analysis yet, but people with more time could perhaps find filters?

michaelg 13th November 2010 07:58 PM

lomaca, I've already looked at the BRR rankings but have not been able to come up with anything consistent or promising. I've even looked at exotics with multiple selections that are high in the BRR ratings, but unfortunately without any success.

However, what I might do is to examine the BRR rankings for Syd R5 and try to work out why it was the highest rated. As a matter of interest, the winner was the third lowest in the BRR ratings.

lomaca 13th November 2010 08:17 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
lomaca, I've already looked at the BRR rankings but have not been able to come up with anything consistent or promising. I've even looked at exotics with multiple selections that are high in the BRR ratings, but unfortunately without any success.

However, what I might do is to examine the BRR rankings for Syd R5 and try to work out why it was the highest rated. As a matter of interest, the winner was the third lowest in the BRR ratings.
I hate say this Michael, after the event, but that was one of my four bets today!

I had them 3,8,1 the 3 Samui, was (for me) obviously out, and Pat.Glory was first up over 1500 so out again.

My rating is of course often different from Donsct. I didn't have Moderna anywhere in the first six even.

Wish I had time to run tests.
Cheers

darkydog2002 14th November 2010 08:42 AM

A trap for young players today Michaelg.Especially for players like me who like a good track.
Dubbo /Newcastle /S.Coast TC Good .
R+S ratings are for DEAD Track conditions.
For me this is betting at my own peril.No Thanks.
Watch on is my go today.

Cheers
darky.

lomaca 14th November 2010 09:31 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by darkydog2002
R+S ratings are for DEAD Track conditions.
Agree with darky here, the two track conditions I don't like to bet on (but sometimes DO just the same) are DEAD and HEAVY.

The worst I think is DEAD, it's such an undefined condition, it could be and mostly is anything, a mixture of good and slow that you never know what to prepare for.

Take Ascot last week, from the fourth race on, I did not have a place getter in my first three selections, highly unusual.

Not that they are profitable mind you because of the dividends can be low, that's why I only bet for a place when the pl divi is more than $3.00.

I worked on a good track but I don't think it was that.

Good luck


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