some musings
 

This comment on Propun the “enjay system” threadffice:office" />



“No successful long-term punter bets any hard mechanical system like your one above. And there is a good reason why they don't, because no hard mechanical system works long-term.” ..... typical and possibly realistic, but mebbe not!



I know a lot of punters and I don’t know anyone who uses a hard mechanical system, probably because they think, as it’s tempting to do so, if it’s that good blah blah blah ……..



In the interests of blah, blah, blah and with the backing of nearly 40 years of analysis …..



The best methods I’ve managed to find are:



A) Back a horse in Melbourne or Sydney coming from QLD, SA, WA and NZ with an impressive Win SR. A filter here could be to make sure the horse has won this time up ….. another filter could be the price. In this system, I don’t like the SR being overly influenced by excellent 2YO form. Some of these have had the guts run out of them, they may have a really good SR, but never win again.



….. there ain’t no more

It's the inevitable run of outs that kills ya!


I’ve looked at, won first up, WON it’s only start then spell, 5 consecutive placings, top weight - last start winner – C – 7 or 14 days, 4^th up having won it’s previous start, 5 starts for 4 wins, won two in a row by 1 length or more, good first up record, and several thousand more ….. lol!!! They all have that killer run of outs. I do like the “price” filter and the number of days between runs.

I,ll throw my 2 bobs worth in.
I,ve come to the conclusion that betting 1 horse a race is for me a recipe for disaster so I multibet a number of horses to attempt a profit whichever one wins.
To do this I use ANY reasonable set of ratings be they R+S - Unitab - Wizard -Giddy Up etc
A cutoff price position I am unsure of but at present $20.
I do like horses up in the weights - 55 KG + (represents 36.5 % of races BUT win 50.6 %) A huge advantage.

Thats my approach.

Re Mechanical systems most I,ve found nearly always lead back to the Fav.
Whether handicapping the eyes out of the fav would be the Holy Grail I dont know but I,ve found that the occassional High priced horse gives me a better all round yearly figure.

Cheers
darky

Barny, there is/was a bookies' saying directed to those punters who make their selections solely based on mechanical systems "you can have your system, and after a year you can still have your system...but I'll have your money".

This is not surprising because of the bookies' take-out.

However, if the very same selections were bet on Betfair or even some of the special features that some agencies now offer, then the results could be different.

From 14/11 I've been testing a mechanical Place system betting on the NSW TAB the fave or what I think could end up being the fave, because it seems the top end of the market might just favor Place over Win betting. So far there have been 190 selections for 161 placegetters and slightly better than a 10% POT. I only have results from 14/12 to 31/12 for Win betting, it is showing a loss of 3.23% yet over the same period the Place results is a profit of 6.89%. December is a notorious month for not winning, and Place betting broke even for that month, and Win betting a loss of 13% from the period 14/12 to 31/12.

Also I think I might have identified a weakness in the U.K. market with Place laying, but I have stopped for the time being because of the inconvenience. The results after 263 races is a profit of $50.73 from $5 bets.

Even a total of 190 races here in Oz for my Place system is nowhere near enough to draw any conclusions, but its possible to come up with a profitable mechanical system, particularly if a strength/weakness can be identified. And then reverse engineer, capitilise, whatever, on it.

Don't give up with mechanical systems because we never know what we might discover if we persevere.

"Don't give up with mechanical systems because we never know what we might discover if we persevere."

Totally agree michaelg

Hi darkydog2002, when you said that most mechanical systems lead back to the favourite I’m guessing that you use ratings. My interpretation of a mechanical system is one when certain criteria are met, then that becomes the selection, ie: form 531s0 based on being put out for a spell after good form last time in. None of my mechanical systems certainly lead to a favourite. I don’t use ratings. One decent system that throws up some mighty high priced winners without a lot of selections includes good form prior to a spell and lightly raced (less than 15 starts). Give the horse a couple of runs.

Also darkydog2002, I agree with your assessment of the 55 kgs +. I'm a great disbeliever that a kilo or two advantage here or there can make a difference. There are more important factors I think. Some topweights are well over the odds because of the weight they're carrying.
ffice:office" />

Hi Barny,
When I talk of mechanical systems I,m referring to commercial mechanical systems sold for up to $250.(I have over 600 of these from various sources) and I would say that around 95 % one would come back to the Fav in selected races depending on the criteria of the system rules.
Unfortunately in over 40 years I have yet to see a mechanical system win long term.
For intellectual purposes though I still seek the "Holy Grail" knowing deep in my heart that I,m doomed to fail.
One such system I recently posted on here came 3rd in Australia in a competition a few years ago.(Frankly I quite like it)

Re Ratings - most Rating services depend on profiling each individual horse.A far better proposition that a set of mechanical and possibly flawed rules in my opinion.

Cheers
darky

See "Data Base Help Required"

Hey Barney,
Here,s one I just made up that might interest you.

Mark down all horses that ran 1st or 2nd last start in current campaign.

Go to racing andsports -Don Scott ratings - Must in top 2 shortest asessed prices.

Go to UNITAB - Price must be between $2.80 - $4.20 (or whatever price you decide on)

Time required 10 minutes.

Gees Barney if this little 10 minute system keeps going even I might win "System of the Year".
Cheers

Darkydog2002, I’ve already nominated you for system of theYear !!



I’ve looked at many strategies for picking winners over the years and have come up with some that do exceptionally well, until the run of outs. When I say exceptionally well, I’m talking several winners in a short space of time (7 or 8 races) of over 10 / 1 and these come up regularly ….. then the run of outs.



The best staking method I’ve come up with to maximise any decent run is an all up method. Your next five bets would be A, B, C, D & E. You would go all up on ABC, ABD, ABE, BCD, BDE and CDE. So you need to back 3 winners in any “group” of 5 bets.



I’m now refining (not too much) a couple of systems that select a horse that will win in the next couple of runs. The basis behind this is my 100 reasons why a horse lost !!



The selection revolves around several different criteria but generally spotting a lightly raced horse with ablity.

• A lightly raced horse who has raced against top fields in at least one run last preparation. This shows that the trainer thinks it has ability. A horse who’s first up run had an excuse, (ie: ran on unsuitable ground), then was put out for a spell.
• A horse with less than a dozen or so runs going into a spell with really good form. eg:
• Second up I’ve found is where the most dramatic improvement can come from, far removed from the old adage of give them a miss second up.

Western Beau Won at 40/1 over 1200. Listed 3yo set weights.

121s0 5-2-2-0 3c M C Connors

Herald sun comments. “Outclassed last time but has won second up and no surprise to see him improve.”

Fiveoclockshadow WON @ $22.30

210s9 4-1-1-0 3c Nerissa Cowell (Eagle Farm)

Ran 12^th in the GR 1 TJ Smith over 1600 “so they think he can go the 1600” said Simon Marshall.

Causeway Queen Won paid $18.70 at Caulfield

111s0 12-7-0-1 4m A Vasil

HS “Gave nothing first up. Tested” It had previously won over 2100 in TAS.

Hassle Won paying $26.90

716s0 30-6-2-6 6g JR Hawkes

HS “Struck unsuitable soft ground when resuming and is better suited here”.



I have many examples of this oversight by punters.

• What am I missing here !?!? Find a nag with a really good strike rate, better if the form is interstate or NZ, back it if over 4 / 1. Delete any horse that has brilliant two year old form on the basis it has had it’s guts run out of it.

Can someone tell me if the Dark Horse system still proclaims to win ?

Hi Barney,
Your thoughts are most interesting.
Another idea might just interest you.
On the Propun weekly Newsletter they indicate horses that had no luck in running at their last start - Perhaps a stable of these using your criteria.

Re Dark Horse .I have been trying to get hold of the Dark Horse 2010 but without luck.

I feel that the best one ever bought out was the Ultimate Dark Horse of some years ago (thats still winning)
A Mr Charles Winston adapted the first one to improve upon it.
If you want a look email me at hotmail.

Cheers
darky