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-   -   percentages (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=21085)

garyf 28th February 2011 05:49 PM

percentages
 
Anybody wishing to include p/money or win place %s this may help.
Total p/money earned.
1=14.8%
2=12.2%
3=12.0%
Average p/money.
1=19.1%
2=15.5%
3=13.0%.
Win s/rate.
1=19.3%
2=15.2%
3=12.9%
Place s/rate.
1=21.7%
2=13.5%
3=12.6%.
Over 10,000 races used australia wide,hope this helps as what to expect if using these stats.
Apart from the poor s/rate of total p/money hardly anything between the rest.
cheers
garyf.

marksto2 28th February 2011 06:23 PM

So if you simply backed the top 3 av prize earners dutch betting you would win around 50% of all races?

garyf 28th February 2011 06:28 PM

Yes approximately and also lose backing everyone of them with no filters.

Dale 1st March 2011 04:06 PM

Thanks for thos Garyf,

Id like to know what the strike rate and pot would be on highest average prizemoney earners who were not top prizemoney earners?

axledog 1st March 2011 10:03 PM

unsure if this was posted for my benefit , but these stats will
help me further progress on my Q+f system , thanks.
Any chance you could submit stats for placings on the same
info you just submitted.

much appreciated
Dog

garyf 2nd March 2011 12:14 AM

Hi dale.
Sorry to dissapoint but after 1,000s> or so recording of bets the top rated average p/money loses overall betting all races everywhere aust only.

The loss on turnover only got worse as did the s/rate as you continued down the order.

The 4th av/p/moneys s/rate was 10.3 the 5th was 9.2.

The s/rate of 10% and less combined with losses on turnover
around the 30%> plus made it a waste to continue recording them.

The p/money will only become profitable when you apply certain filters just backing every 1-2-3 av p/money will result in double digit loss on turnover.

I wouldn't despair after 30> years on the punt buying 100s of mechanical systems joining dozens of rating services reading stacks of racing books etc their is only 1 stat i know of that makes a small level stakes (R.O.I)

Every stat i have ever surveyed loses just betting that one stat by itself
and betting every race in australia every day for say 10,000> races.

The trick is to find a stat you like then add your own filters to it so that it becomes profitable.

Yeah i know you all want to know what the stat is that makes a level stakes r.o.i after 10.000> races betting all races australia wide right.

1ST RATED PLACE STRIKE RATE RANKING (21.7% s/rate)
And a (3% roi level stakes) i know of no other (1 stat only) betting
every race in australia every day that makes a (LEVEL STAKES PROFIT)

If you do me and a lot of pro punters would love you to tell us
you have found shangri-la.


cheers
garyf.

garyf 2nd March 2011 12:41 AM

Hi axledog.
No the stats i post are for everyone maybe some people can use them.

Can't help you with the placings as i use beaten margins rather than
placings as i find this a more accurate guide to a horses performance.

These are part of my selection technique i actually haven't recorded
beaten margins data as you would probably have to put them into groups.

Eg all horses that were beaten say <1.0 or less would then include multiple runners unless you wanted to break it down say( 0.1)( 0.2)( 0.3) etc which
would take forever to get sufficient data and the grouping wouldn't be an exact stat with several runners making up that stat thus giving a false reading.

Last stat winners win around 15% of all races but i don't know 2nd-3rd.

Sorry the above answes iare not more helpful.

Good luck with your system building.

cheers
garyf.

Bhagwan 2nd March 2011 06:22 AM

If one wishes to use a data base where one can analyse the top ranked place percentage against winning lengths last start...

You could use GTX cost approx $5000 with everything .
Or
Online System Builder - Free (Google)
Its a brilliant piece of kit it is.


Here's a win method created using that site.
So far 55%SR & 46% POT Sat Metro only.

This is the Holy Grail - believe it or not.
& I will bet that nearly all punters wont use it, because they rather chase lots of bets rather than profit.
Even though its got Holy Grail stamped on the tin & all.
Funny that.

RULES
Sat Metro all tracks

Race No. 1-7

Win Ranking less than 4

Place Rank 1

Dist 1100-2240

Career starts greater than 2

Won LS

LS Margin greater than 3 lngs

Dist Difference to last start -400 to +400m

Dale 2nd March 2011 06:39 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by garyf
Hi dale.
Sorry to dissapoint but after 1,000s> or so recording of bets the top rated average p/money loses overall betting all races everywhere aust only.

.



Garyf,

That wasnt my question,ive been at this long enough to know the realities of this game and what it takes to win,thank you!

If anyone can answer my question it would be appreciated.

Cheers.

Bhagwan 2nd March 2011 07:18 AM

Hi Dale, did he make you feel cranky?


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