No reason this should work?
 

Hey guys.

Just an idea for no reason... Outside the box...

Rules
.8-9 starters
.no maidens
.horse number 2 or 3
.seln is the highest priced of the two
.place bet

There it is simple and maybe effective... The handicapper has done the work. You get value because no one else takes the price...

Someone run a test??

Winner winner chicken dinner!!

I figure the loss to be around the 15% Mark.
Thats the Government takeout of the place pool.
And the reason for the loss is there is no reason that any of the rules points to an Overlay.

Ran this through Online System Builder
Made a loss of -15% LOT with existing rules

BUT

By changing a few rules it ended up with a....
69%PlcSR & +8% POT

RULES for place only
TAB Nos. 2-3
8 runners exactly.
2+ career starts
1st or 2nd LS
TAB price 1.60-4.50



Interestingly on the win side only.
42% SR
17% POT

RULES for win only
1st LS only.
TAB Nos. 2-3
2+ career starts.
8 runners exactly.
TAB Price 1.60-4.50

The price they start at, played a big part of turning it into profit.

That price shown for the Place rule relates to its 1.60-4.50 win only price .
We then bet it to run a place,

Hi bhagwan.

Wonder if you can do me a favour.

These are the rules to a mechanical system purchased in 1992,
was profitable for a while but then dropped off.

1= Consider only saturday metropolitan races between (1,000-1,700)

2= Consider sydney and melbourne only.

3= Target only (last start ) metropolitan winners.

4=Horses last start days between (1-14)

5= A horses last start starting price must be ($5.0 or less).

6= Starting price for todays race ($3.0-$11.0)

I added some rules when it went on the decline but eventually still lost.

The added rules were.

tab 1-2-3
20% win strike rate
3rd up > plus from a spell
Field size less than<14.

I know it will lose was just wondering nowadays how much.

cheers
garyf

What you need to do is run the system many times , with a minor change to 1 Rule at a time , to see which rules are responsible for the Profit.

So by starting with Rule 1, run the System where Rule 1 becomes TAB Number is "X"
- where X is Tab No. 1 for the 1st Run, Tab No. 2 for the 2nd run , and so on
All the other Rules stay the same.
The idea is to find which TAB Numbers make the most Profit, and try to see a pattern or a reason for the various results.
It may well be that TAB 1 is actually more profitable than No.s 2 or 3 , or Perhaps worse.

Thanks for that Mooee,

I have been doing just that & it does make a difference.