Greetings forum members.... another "new bloke" is scrawling his maiden post here...

I've been mowing thru the Propun website for a few months now and also the Horse Racing forum here in the last week or so, obviously a lot of interesting stuff to take on board for the punter with half a clue looking to get a little bit more serious with it all.

One of the major topics that seems to continually gets drilled into the information here is the concept of "value". It appears this is (apart from a solid selection method) the absolute key to making or losing money in the long-term.

My question is, how do you frame your own market in the first place to assess whether your fancy actually represents value? I can only assume that punters who do this have their own ratings system, and will then derive a market from this.

I'm not sure if I'm missing the point to it, but in simplistic terms, let's say you're ratings have Horse A on 71, Horse B on 68, Horce C 67, etc etc.... mathematically how do you frame a market around this? Is there a particular statistical distribution or otherwise to do it effectively?

Or if you dont really use ratings, is there a standard method for calculating it in a different manner (not sure how this is possible exactly, gut feel perhaps?!?)

I'm sure from what I've seen in the forum thus far that someone will lead me on the path to righteousness!

... and Happy New Year punters!

The simplest and most effiecent method to use to assign probablities, is to look at the Mean , Standard Deviation and a Normal Distribution Table which is where you will find Z score probs , do a search on the internet an download a z score table from -3 to +3, or ask you son or daughter if they are currently in High school they will be able to point you in the right direction, this is really very basic maths we are talking about.
The hard part starts once you gain a lil knowledge on this subject.

[ This Message was edited by: woof43 on 2003-01-01 00:01 ]

The other method that is used, but its essentially for playing the exotics is to create a simple Monte Carlo simultaion program in excel say using 5,000 simulations
9depending on the speed of your machine) then run 4 or 5 tests and record the results for each test run, so you get the Probabilities for each runner to fill all placings this is a far better alternative than using the Harville formula which distorts probabilities somewhat.

Another new bloke who will put his bit in with regards to "value" which I believe is
looked at the wrong way.

Value is what you set for yourself not what the market sets for you. We often hear the statement "that was over the odds" or "that was under the odds".

WHOSE ODDS? WHAT ODDS?

The market odds I hear you say. Well who sets those odds, The BOOKMAKER does and all his odds are "under the odds" as he has to make a profit the same as anyone in business does.

Back to "value". VALUE is what you set yourself for yourself. What might be acceptable odds for me may be unacceptable for someone else. I don't like accepting odds under $3 and think twice about anything over $15. Anything in the middle is acceptable value to me.

As to framing a market I don't bother. I simply do the form and try to get the chances to 3 or less otherwise I move onto the next race.

When it comes time to place the bet if the odds aren't in my price bracket I don't bet.

Good first post Generalgym.
The bookies set a market hoping that punters will be stupid/smart enough to back horses at the odds provided. The prices then fluctuate according to market forces, ie punters/owners/other bookies money. Does anyone else get annoyed when stupid racecallers/commentators state that the bookies are keen to lay something or keen to take something on, when in reality the price is only being adjusted because there is no money for it, ie bookies may set the original market but punters or weight of money decide what happens. What's even more annoying is when these so-called experts say the bookies lost a heap on that last favourite because they took it on easing it from (for eg) 1/1 to 2/1. NO, NO, NO, these are the favourites that bookies love to win because there has been no money for them. (unless of course it has been backed SP, but that doesn't happen any more does it, doesn't happen any less either.)
Sorry, getting a bit off track there.

Not off track but spot on Mark. We are offered the odds by the bookmaker and they will always be "under" where they should be to start with. If there are too few bets to balance the books then the bookie lengthens the odds to attract more money on runners he's not holding big on.
Its simple you either accept the odds on offer or you don't, the trick is how well you accept them eg. each way, win only and what amount? What profit forecast?
Whats the best form of win and place betting in your mind?
Win
Each Way
1/4
1/3
1/2
Place only

I saw this on another punting website and had to share it:

"Value is like pornography - it is hard to define it but you know it when you see it!"

:lol:

Don Scott's method as described (grotesquely) on pp188 of Winning More involves a table converting kg differences to relative chances.

Chances for kg 0..5 read 100, 80, 57, 40, 25, 14

In your example of 71, 68, 67 express the ratings as kg differences i.e. 0, 3, 4

Then convert to relative chances

100:40:25

Divide by the total 165 to get probabilities, then invert for required dividends.

    Diff Chance Prob Div 

A 71  0    100  0.61 1.65

B 68  3     40  0.24 4.13

C 67  4     25  0.15 6.60

In practice these days it's near impossible to regularly find value on offer through traditional means, so doing this might be a waste of time.



However occasional anomalies do exist. On (free) ozeform.com check Cosmic Rays which paid $23.40 on October 26. All he had to do was run a "60". He's often run much better before and after, so it doesn't say much for the professional tipsters.




_________________
jfc
~

[ This Message was edited by: jfc on 2003-02-16 10:36 ]

[ This Message was edited by: jfc on 2003-02-16 10:37 ]

in an earlier post on the ability of the market to "get it right" the majority of the time someone produced statistics which showed that horses over a period of time ran nearly exactly what their tote odds suggested...e.g horses that went out at $4.00 (3/1 or 25% chance) won 25% of the time...if you assume that the "true" odds of a horses chances are what the tote is displaying before the jump, then compare those odds to the bookies you may find value...but you must adjust the tote odds to a market of 100% as the tote "bets" to a market of approx 120%....e.g if a horse is showing $5.00 just before jump then its "true" odds are $5 x 120/100 = $6.00....you then try and find value with the bookies at this price....

cheers,

noel