Throw out Ratings, Form Guides & 97% of Punters
 

Don’t worry about class or form.

12 horses in a race, all at different stages of fitness, the “class” obvious in some, not so in others, all unique individuals with their unique idiosyncrasies, hoops who’ve just had an argument with the missus, the odd horse who is just feeling off colour, and then there’s the bad luck to come in the running. So ….. not always is the “best” horse going to win !! (that’s an understatement !! to say the least ….. )

Grab a horse that looks like it’s primed, or just about primed ….. forget the others in the race. Look at the individual horse !!! Don’t worry if it’s only won one race in a decent field where it looks to have NO chance. Only concern yourself with assessing if it’s going to run one of the best races of it’s life. It may be forst up with a report of doing well in trials, it may be fourth up with excuses in two of the races due to “failed because of track condition” or “vet examination”, or it may have simply improved at it’s recent starts but is “out of it’s depth. We’ve seen here many arguments on weight, times, class, fitness, blah, blah, blah (all good stuff) but where do the longshots come from? They come from the “form” that doesn’t give them a top chance in the race. Maybe they ran a good race beaten in excellent time, but flat the next start ?, maybe they were improving in country class races and brought to Metro but “out of their class”, maybe their last start had excuses but they’re lightly raced and un-noticed, maybe they’ve improved at each of their last few runs. They could realistically be a true 10 / 1 pop on ability, yet they’re dismissed and unloved, and their one bad run this time in had excuses, and they’re 40 / 1. How many times have you hit the form guide AFTER a race has been run and won by a longshot, only to “see” that it did have excuses, form, or some chance of (hindsight) winning. Sometimes decent horses win at long odds before their noticed.

My point is if you can pick when a horse is going to perform at it’s best, (back it and follow up next start too just in case you’re one run early), then forget what it’s up against and you’ll be ahead of the game.

Forget the race ….. Forget the form ….. Concentrate on finding a horse about to run it’s VERY BEST race this preparation, esp one who has excuses that may have been missed. Back it today and next start.

Maybe start from the bottom up, coz these will usually be overlooked ?~! I’m looking for a DECENT reason the BELIEVE that a horse (any horse) is about to run it’s best race. It may be a 4 y/o who has had 3 runs this time in ….. it’s second start may have shown it was caught wide, or suffered interference (forget weight analysis !!!), and it’s third start it may have led and weakened. Gotta use judgement to assess whether this is THE RUN !!

Seems to me to be easier to look at the card and search for a horse approaching it’s peak, and back it for a couple of runs. I’m NOT LOOKING for a horse that flashed home in a 1200 metre at Sale then goes to Metro at 1400 ….. It’s there for all to see !! ….. and probs wont win anyway. I’m looking for a horse that was unlucky at Sale (or where ever) over 1200 and goes to Metro at 1400. I’m looking for an improver, one who is about to reach peak fitness, with HIDDEN / OVERLOOKED “form / excuses” ….. judgement used on a horse that’s maybe got a lot of improvement in it due to it’s number of starts or a “heads up” because of what fields it was put in last prep.

For instance, you could do worse than follow the form from Geelong Synthetic track ..... or what about Shocking a few weeks ago on it's favourite track.

Forget the race ..... wait for the horse and most importantly take advantage of the odds !

On A Jeune won the Geelong Cup in great fashion and then was unlucky in the Melb Cup @ 70 / 1.

Not all form needs to be hidden, but if we do the opposite to all others and find a horse approaching it's best run ..... REGARDLESS of it's "RACE RATINGS" ..... then we have the odds on our side.

Remememememember that 97%+ of punters lose, I assume following "traditional"methods ....

Having said that I believe what's been said here about looking a gift horse in the mouth ..... there are systems here that win, yet no-one will follow them ..... WHY ???

Work at becoming one of the 3% .....

Like all great men, I'll be remembered for my greatness after my death.

Got my epitath sorted .....

TOLD YOU I WAS SICK !

Hi barny.

One way that i determine this is to look at a horses last three starting prices.

Say st-3 = s/p$26.00
st-2 = s/p$15.00.
st-1 = s/p$8.00.

Regardless of any other factor it's one way to judge a horses improvement.

When i see a horse with a big price drop from say $21.00 last start too now
say $5.00 to me for whatever reason (MILLIONS OF THEM) i consider carefully

It's definitely not the be all end all of assesing an improved run
just one small part of the puzzle?

Cheers
garyf.

Barny talking about shocking a good example.

First up 11th of 16 s/p=$51.00
Second up 7th of 13 s/p =$12.00
Flemington opened $8.00 and wins

Probably a better example of my last post.

garyf, those last two posts of yours, as simple in words that they are ..... send a powerful messgae don't they ?!

Hi barny.

Yep just another angle in the never ending search i guess.

Could'nt agree more
 

Barny, you have hit the nail on the head. Follow form and you will lose roughly 15%.

Your are really pointing to the fitness factor and a horse often uses races to reach maximum fitness so form is usually useless. Finding fit horses these days is very difficult. One indicator I have found useful is to look for horses that last start were 9th or more back at the turn and finished within 2.25 lengths of the winner.