Logic or no logic?
 

Okay, this is not my creation. It is an adaptation of a system posted by Mr Logic in this forum in 2003.

Maybe it would work best (if at all) on non maiden races?



1. Use TAB numbers one and two

2. To qualify the horse must have a tote price no shorter than $2.50 and no longer than $4.00. Determine these prices as close to start time as possible.

3. If there are two qualifiers disregard the race.

4. Bet your selection with one unit.

5. Should this lose then bet the next qualifying race. Your bet size should aim to recover your lost bet PLUS make a profit.

6. If this bet loses your bet size should aim to cover the two losing bets PLUS make a prifit.

7. Stop when you hit a winner.

Sounds good. Anyone run this through a results database to check long term results??

I have been using a system along these types of lines for a while, well mainly the targetting top of the book. One thing to perhaps look at is the barrier draw, I find that a supposedly "unfavourable" barrier draw can be a good thing.

7. Stop when you hit a winner ..... You might need the Bank of England behind you !

Ha ha ha :)

I'm currently trying to lay TAB no 1 whatever the price but using liability.

I can see that backing between those prices (which would probably make them fav or second fav) may be okay but your recovery amounts may get pretty high and hairy as Barny said.

Looking to win $50 at an average of $3.50 TAB return you would be down the gurgler about $5,500 after 15 losses in a row ..... which is possible. You'd be betting in the thousands by then.

Betting $1.00 per $1,000
Using recovery on lost amount + $1.00 O/L per race

We are assuming average price of 3.50

Bank will last 17 outs

If you can guarantee that there will never be a run of 17 outs in a row , you have absolutely nothing to worry about.

Or have you?

Quote from the original post.

" Your bet size should aim to recover your dollar PLUS make a profit of 50 cents."